The disastrous scenario has been put forward for several weeks by the United States like the United Kingdom. Far from being satisfied with a takeover of Donbass by his soldiers, Vladimir Putin launched, this Thursday, February 24 in the early morning, an attack on Ukraine. Shelling was heard in several cities, including its capital Kiev. The Ukrainian authorities quickly denounced a “massive invasion” of a State which it presents with contempt as an “artificial creation” of the Bolshevik regime. But how far will the Russian president go?
The indisputable military superiority of the Russian army makes the capture of the Ukrainian capital plausible. She is preparing for it, Ukrainian intelligence confirmed to President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the news agency Union. And two other large cities would also be under threat of invasion: Kherson, about 100 kilometers from Crimea, and Kharkiv, about 30 kilometers from the Russian border, in an area where the American satellite imagery company Maxar has reported disturbing new deployments in recent days. In all, Westerners estimate the number of Russian fighters on the outskirts of Ukraine to be more than 150,000.
Kiev, for its part, is under threat from the battalions amassed in the south of Belarus, whose border is only a hundred kilometers away as the crow flies. Vladimir Putin has indeed maintained the tens of thousands of fighters – and their equipment – who participated jointly with Minsk in a vast exercise, from February 10 to 20. The Russian president had however assured Emmanuel Macron, during his visit to Moscow, that these troops would return to Russian territory once the maneuvers were completed…
A Russian military truck drives along a road in the Rostov region, bordering the separatist territory of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, February 23, 2022.
afp.com/STRINGER
Are they preparing to attack the Ukrainian capital, at the same time as forces penetrate Ukrainian territory elsewhere? “Russia has many possibilities to strike Kiev, such as bombardments, raids by airborne troops or sending its battalions, even if it will not be easy to cover the ground to get there,” recalls Joseph Henrotin , researcher at the Institute of Comparative Strategy and editor-in-chief of the review DSI (International Defense and Security).
Putin wants the “demilitarization” of Ukraine
In Georgia, in the summer of 2008, the Russian army had outclassed the local forces in just a few days. But it had stopped about forty kilometers from the capital, Tbilisi, contenting itself with forcing the authorities to accept a ceasefire and their defeat. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin said he wanted “to a certain extent the demilitarization of present-day Ukraine” and that the “best solution” to put an end to the crisis would be for “the authorities to “stick to neutrality” and ” refuse on their own to join NATO”.
Before launching an assault on Kiev, the Russian army will already seek to take control of the air. “It will need about two days to achieve air superiority, estimates Gustav Gressel, Russia specialist at the European Council on International Relations. Then it can attack any Ukrainian formation from the air or use drones at will to call in the artillery, so before they meet the enemy on the ground, the Russians will have already inflicted severe damage on the Ukrainians.”
A Ukrainian soldier in his position near the town of Schastia, facing pro-Russian separatists, in eastern Ukraine, February 23, 2022.
afp.com/Anatolii Stepanov
Enough to push the Russian battalions to Kiev. “Several weeks of urban warfare could be necessary to capture it”, estimates Gustav Gressel. Fights in town are much more difficult than those in open terrain. Especially since the Ukrainian capital has nearly 2.9 million inhabitants and President Zelensky on Wednesday launched the mobilization of 200,000 reservists, who will strengthen the defense of the territory with the 250,000 members of the regular armed forces.
After the conquest phase would then follow that of occupation. “But it will not be so simple, because Ukrainian nationalism has grown in recent years, including in Russian-speaking areas,” recalls Joseph Henrotin. By pushing his troops too far and prolonging their presence, Vladimir Putin risks seeing the number of dead among his fighters climb. A funeral count that Russian society is no longer used to. Not sure, therefore, that the Russian president ultimately wants his army to march on Kiev. Even if he has the military means to achieve this.