When we look at a map of the evolution of the Trump vote between 2020 and 2024, the sanction is clear for the outgoing administration: Kamala Harris did relatively worse than Joe Biden in almost all American counties. This decline is particularly notable in certain territories traditionally won by Democrats. This is particularly the case in the Bronx, where Donald Trump tripled his 2016 score, or even the Texas county of Starr, on the Mexican border, which the Republican conquered for the first time since 1912. There, 98 % of the population belongs to the Latino community, a historic support of the Democrats which played a decisive role in the rout of the outgoing vice-president.
In the key states, which the two candidates surveyed for months, the result is the same: Donald Trump improved his margin almost everywhere. But one region stands out in this Republican ocean. In northern Georgia, this swing state in the American “deep South” which offered its 16 electors to Donald Trump, a dozen counties voted against the tide. They surround the city of Atlanta and if Kamala Harris performed better there than Joe Biden in 2020, it is no coincidence.
Metro Atlanta is one of the most dynamic urban areas in the entire country. Since the early 2000s, it has experienced an annual growth rate of around 2.5%. This has fallen to 1.5% since the Covid-19 pandemic, but it still remains twice as high as the country’s average. Today, the urban area is home to more than 6.3 million residents and represents more than half of Georgia’s electorate; it could reach 8 million in 2050, surpassing Washington DC and Philadelphia.
Several factors explain this demographic explosion. First, the city is a cluster of prestigious universities: the private University of Emory and Georgia Tech are located there, as are the campuses of Morehouse and Spelman College, two of the most prestigious African-American universities in the country. country. The city therefore attracts many young people who often stay in the region after their studies because Atlanta and its outskirts form a significant employment area. Several large multinationals such as Coca-Cola, UPS and Delta Airlines run their operations there and even Google has based one of its regional headquarters in a skyscraper in the upscale Midtown district. The city also has one of the busiest airports in the world and the Hollywood film industry has also relocated part of its productions there. Lately, a large portion of Marvel Universe films have been filmed in the region.
This economic dynamism attracts young people – and especially young people from racial minorities. “Atlanta has become the preferred destination for blacks migrating within the United States,” demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution recently told L’Express. Today, a third of the city’s residents are black and a tenth are of Hispanic origin, which favors Democratic candidates at all levels. Since 2020, Georgia has had two Democratic senators in Congress and among its 12 representatives in the House, the four elected representatives from the metropolis, all reappointed last week, come from Kamala Harris’ party.
Little consolation for Democrats
Traditionally, Georgia is a conservative, Republican state and Donald Trump’s victory (50.7% against 48.5% for his opponent) does not disprove this reputation. But in recent years, the state has become what American political scientists call a “purple state”, that is to say a state capable of electing Democratic and Republican officials alternately. For the presidential election, this means that Georgia is a “swing state”.
For Democrats, the development of metro Atlanta is excellent news. This means that in the years to come, the city could single-handedly make the state one of their strongest bastions. This is already the case in the center of the metropolis which once again this year supported the Democratic presidential candidacy by more than 70%. On the outskirts, in Barrow, Fayette, Paulding and Walton counties, Donald Trump once again came out on top, but he lost ground. In four years, these counties have experienced double-digit population growth. If the momentum continues, the Democrats can one day hope to conquer the entire region. We will still have to ensure that we solidify the bases of our electorate. Which Kamala Harris resolutely failed to do.