In African chancelleries, he is known as the white wolf. Dark suit, rimless glasses, half-smile: Russian nuclear powerhouse Alexei Likhachev, boss of the public group Rosatom and old traveling companion of Vladimir Putin, has been doing photo sessions with African officials in recent months. Here with the Ethiopian Minister of Innovation, there with his Rwandan counterpart in charge of Infrastructure, elsewhere again with the Malian Minister of Energy. In their hands, the same file stamped Rosatom, containing a mysterious “road map” to provide these States with the holy grail: nuclear energy. The promise of a bright future for a continent still largely deprived of electricity. More than 600 million inhabitants do not have access to it, or two thirds of the population. So many hearts to conquer for Moscow, in the midst of a seduction operation in this region.
Leading arms seller in Africa, godfather of the Central African state and three juntas in the Sahel via its mercenaries of the Africa Corps (successor to Wagner), the Putin regime is rapidly extending its hold on the continent, driving out a to one the former Western partners. “Russia has not yet achieved its objectives of influence, analyzes Lova Rinel, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. Atom diplomacy offers it another gateway, through ‘soft power ‘. In the pan-African discourse, the nuclear dream is closely linked to the anti-colonial struggle: since France has become a nuclear power thanks to the continent’s uranium, the access of these States to the nuclear club is seen as a fair reparation. Russia happily plays on this sensitive chord.”
The “debt trap” Putin version
In ten years, around twenty countries have signed nuclear cooperation agreements with Rosatom offering the training of engineers, the supply of research reactors, and even the construction of power stations. At least, on paper… The world’s No. 1 nuclear company has redoubled its activism since the start of the invasion in Ukraine, looking for new friends and markets to resist Western sanctions.
To lure the customer, the Kremlin displays insolent generosity. “In certain countries, 100% of the financing is provided by Russia,” assures, without further details, Vladimir Putin in March 2023. Flagship product of the Russian “catalogue”, the Egyptian El-Dabaa power plant, four reactors in progress construction for an expected power of 4,800 megawatts. “The largest Russian-Egyptian cooperation project since the construction of the Aswan Dam” (in the 1960s), trumpets Alexei Likhachev. The work, set to become the second power station on the continent after that of Koeberg, in South Africa, is 85% financed by a Russian state loan. “Egypt has borrowed $25 billion, which must be repaid over thirty-five years at an annual interest rate of 3%,” says Alex Vines, director of the Africa program at Chatham House. Clearly, Cairo is tied hand and foot to Russia for the next thirty-five years!” A Slavic version of the “debt trap” practiced for years by China.
But the Russians are not only banking on future repayments. “In Egypt, they find their way there thanks to industrial and military agreements. Elsewhere, it is in minerals that they intend to be paid,” adds Lova Rinel. The agreement signed at the end of 2023 with Mali provides, for example, for “mineral exploration and nuclear energy production”. Russian paramilitaries are already exploiting gold mines there, as in the Central African Republic or Sudan. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Wagner’s African gold has brought in $2.5 billion, according to the report of an independent expert group, The Blood Gold Report, published last December. Or 2% of the Russian defense budget in 2024.
No wonder, in these conditions, that the Kremlin is working in all directions to sell its “nuclear miracle” to the continent! By scoring, in passing, points in public opinion. “The energy question is at the heart of concerns in Africa, whose population will double by 2050, observes Hartmut Winkler, professor of physics at the University of Johannesburg. What citizen does not aspire to have electricity all the time? the day, in record time? That would be great… if only it was realistic!”
Announcement effects
The case of Burkina Faso, led by putschist captain Ibrahim Traoré, recently made this expert jump. In October 2023, the government announced the construction of a nuclear power plant in partnership with Russia. “We believe we can start the construction process no later than 2025,” declared Energy Minister Yacouba Zabré Gouba five months later. In this country where less than 3 out of 10 inhabitants have electricity, the State wants to double energy production by 2030. “Mission impossible”, sighs Hartmut Winkler. “Launching a nuclear energy program is a major undertaking that requires careful planning. It involves ten to fifteen years of preparatory work and a commitment for around a hundred years,” specifies the International Nuclear Energy Agency. atomic energy. Unimaginable in the current context of Burkina Faso, faced with chronic instability, and where 40% of the territory escapes the control of the army, under the threat of jihadist groups.
“Neither the Russians nor their partners are fooled. This is the strength of Vladimir Putin: he targets authoritarian leaders who do not care about obtaining results,” continues Lova Rinel. “Their only obsession is to stay in power.” This is good, the Kremlin also provides them with a Praetorian Guard. In Burkina Faso, men from the Africa Corps took up their quarters last December, about twenty kilometers from the capital.
On the eastern side of the continent, in Uganda, the irremovable president Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, promises wonders to his population thanks to the construction of two nuclear power plants following an agreement with Russia and the South Korea. A pharaonic project supposed to produce 15,000 megawatts of electricity, ten times more than current production, with commissioning promised for 2031. Untenable in the current state of the country’s electricity network. Not to mention all the pending issues, and not the least: regulatory framework, radioactive waste management system, etc.
“In reality, there are few states capable of hosting nuclear energy in Africa,” explains Lova Rinel, also commissioner, in France, at the Energy Regulatory Commission. In addition to South Africa which already has a central, Egypt which is building one after years of preparation, Nigeria and Ghana are the most advanced.” They too signed with the Russian atomic giant in the early 2010s. But another player has since joined the dance: China. The head of the National Nuclear Company (CNNC), which already cooperates with Kenya and South Africa, signed a framework protocol on April 23 to build an HPR-1000 (Hualong One) reactor in Ghana with a capacity power of 1,100 megawatts. And the Middle Kingdom does not intend to stop there, especially since the Western nuclear powers are not rushing into this market. Between Moscow and Beijing, the “limitless friendship” celebrated in 2022 does not prevent limitless competition.
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