It’s called “the boot of Nevers”, an expression that Gérald Darmanin likes to use at the moment. The art and way of bringing the opponent onto his field, forcing him to attack and finishing with the famous boot. The Minister of the Interior adopts this strategy in his functions. It completes it with a permanent adaptation to changes in context and the evolution of opinion. His detractors mock this malleability, he intends to use it as his strength on the immigration bill.
From the summer of 2022, he chooses his playing field: he is banking on an examination of his text in the Senate before the Assembly. Too bad for the president of the LR group Olivier Marleix, who asked Elisabeth Borne to give priority to deputies. Because on immigration, it’s on the right that it’s at stake. By beginning the examination in the Senate, Gérald Darmanin has a plan in mind: to achieve a vote on a text co-constructed by the government and the LR senators to place the right-wing deputies against the wall. Beauvau expects that a third of the Republican group in the National Assembly will vote in favor of the bill. Let the right come to an agreement with itself under the patronage of the executive: that is the idea.
The government text has long been reduced in public debate to its integration aspect. But that was before. The Arras attack changes the paradigm. Forgotten – apparently – the debate on the regularization of workers in an irregular situation in professions in shortage. Attention is focused on the repressive aspect of the text, which aims to facilitate the expulsion and issuance of OQTF to foreign offenders. The government wants to rely on tragic news to constrain the right, which is so reluctant. “What is the political cost for her of not adopting it?”, points out Beauvau. A minister from the left confirms: “LR wants to differentiate itself from us. But the context has changed. The French are waiting for a text on immigration, it will be harder for them to maintain their position.”
Arras, whose fault is it? In small touches, Gérald Darmanin blames the right for the non-expulsion of Mohammed Mogouchkov, alleged assassin of French professor Dominique Bernard. Too easy to only charge the Valls cabinet, which had given up on removing the young man and his family in 2014! If the killer could not be expelled, it was because of public order reservations, these protections adopted during the five-year term of Nicolas Sarkozy ; If the assassin’s father was not deported after his arrival in France in 2010, when he was already known for radicalization, it is because the Fillon government was unable to do so. The Minister of the Interior may even remind his right-wing interlocutors that the abolition of the offense of residence for illegal immigrants, transcribed into French law under the Hollande presidency, results from a text of which the European People’s Party was in favor. the origin.
“People know that this law will not change anything”
A communications war is thus emerging between the executive and the right. The first wishes to demonstrate the firmness of his project, the second must prove the uselessness of the text. The one who imposes his vision will prevail in public opinion. “If we show that this changes things, LR will not be able to vote against,” confides the boss of the Renaissance group to the Assembly Sylvain Maillard.
But the right is not giving up. Only a constitutional revision and a derogation from international law will allow France to regulate migratory flows. Simple law is powerless. In December, the National Assembly and the Senate will examine a proposed constitutional law (PPLC) tabled by LR. “People know that this law will change nothing or only marginally,” insists Olivier Marleix. “If we put robust solutions on the table that the government refuses, public opinion will understand our approach.” The polls act here as justice of the peace. A barometer commissioned by the government information service (SIG) shows broad public approval of the project. The right in return invokes French support for the measures contained in its PPLC. One everywhere, ball in the center.
The shadow of the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights) weighs on the debates. Since the right highlights its role in preventing people from going around in circles, Gérald Darmanin “takes responsibility” – he almost claims it! – that France be condemned after the resumption of expulsions of Chechens registered in S to Russia. He gave instructions, since the judgments are not suspensive, to expel, even if it means paying a fine. Who cares about the bill! To hell with the annoyance of part of the Macronist government, which deplores an attack on the rule of law. This bold outing makes it possible to mollify public opinion – European justice does not have a good press – without falling on the wrong side of the fence. “If this is the problem, Marleix and Ciotti must take responsibility for leaving the ECHR and organizing a frexit ECHR,” supports a member of the executive, who adds: “Where is the text from the LR government party? constitutional revision, we cannot do it quickly, we can discuss it but it is not an immediate response.”
Strategic disagreements on the right
Eric Ciotti runs the television sets, Gérald Darmanin never says no to a radio morning show… Behind the stands, a parliamentary battle is brewing. The text is expected in the Senate, where the right has a majority, on November 6. Its examination is the subject of a strategic disagreement between the boss of senators LR Bruno Retailleau and his counterpart in the Assembly Olivier Marleix. The Vendéen wishes to rewrite the government version in order to send a muscular text to the Assembly. Olivier Marleix would like the Senate to reject the text altogether in order to avoid problems in his chamber.
“We cannot give the feeling that we are swallowing Darmanin’s little soup on a small stove thinking that it will change something,” judges the deputy. He explained this with his colleague during a recent party strategic council. “Stop voting on texts to save two or three amendments,” said Olivier Marleix. The senator defends the constructive work of the upper chamber. “When you are in the majority in the Senate, you cannot be in a Pavlovian opposition,” he confides. “Our electorate would not tolerate us not proposing anything. Olivier is in the minority in the Assembly, his situation is different.” Corporatist logic. Everyone observes the battlefield with their own glasses.
The Senate Law Committee adopted 71 amendments in March aimed at strengthening the text, such as a tightening of family reunification or the transformation of state medical aid (AME) into emergency medical aid. When you flirt with your opponent, you end up getting burned. Gérald Darmanin did not originally want the text to address the question of AME. “Gérald told us that he would be dragged to the right if this point was raised and that this would put him in an impossible situation,” says a participant in the interministerial meetings. He was not wrong: the Minister of the Interior today supports the desire of LR senators to transform the AME, at the risk of being criticized within the government itself. “I will adopt the Senate’s modifications,” he announced this Wednesday, October 18 during Questions to the Government (QAG). In the Assembly, the president of the Law Commission Sacha Houlié warns: “I do not want to redo the pension reform: give points to LR elected officials so that in the end they do not vote.”
A mess of amendments
And it’s not over. Bruno Retailleau promises new amendments for the session, ranging from reinstating the offense of illegal residence to the requirement of five years of presence for access to non-contributory social benefits. Around ten government amendments are also being studied at Place Beauvau: extending the detention period for dangerous individuals on the S file to 18 months instead of three currently, as Gérald Darmanin has already announced, but also, according to our information , add adherence to a radical ideology as grounds for expulsion or authorize the search of the home of an illegal alien when a judge authorizes the police to go looking for him.
The vote on the text by the two chambers is still far away. For this scenario to come true, the government must succeed in sweeping under the carpet, in one way or another, the red rag that Article 3 has become, the one which allows regularization in professions in shortage. “If there is even a trace of this article in the bill, my group will vote against the text,” Bruno Retailleau repeats loudly. The right refuses any legislative development, which in its eyes would create an enforceable right to regularization. His centrist ally Hervé Marseille is in favor. The Renaissance parliamentarians are very attached to the system, which would allow a foreigner to make his request for regularization alone, and not accompanied by his employer as provided for in a 2012 circular. “The LR and Renaissance have made it a fetish, as my dog with his blanket”, laments Hervé Marseille.
Calendar Battle
Quietly, an outline of a compromise is taking shape. The provision could be implemented by regulation, even if the title is not issued automatically but at the discretion of the prefects. Bruno Retailleau privately says he is very confident about an agreement with his centrist allies. The president of the Law Commission François-Noël Buffet, “reasonably optimistic”, confirms: “We do not need this provision. It has a regulatory character. Those who say the opposite are looking for an argument to justify their position.” At the Assembly, Sylvain Maillard calms things down. “The vehicle is not a totem. On the other hand, the rule must be laid down clearly. When the text arrives at the Assembly, we must have ‘the big picture’ .” Legal war or political battle? Sacha Houlié assures that a legislative text is essential so that the employer is no longer the only one able to request the regularization of its employee.
The battle of the calendar is on. As soon as 49.3 is drawn up quickly for the budget, parliamentary time will be freed, hence the desire of those in power to see its bill examined in the Assembly from December 11 – and not in February 2024, as envisaged until now. ‘now. Since the first day, Eric Ciotti has sent the message to the top of the State: never, whatever its content, would the right vote for the immigration text. “Pensions yes, immigration no,” confided the boss of LR to government spokesperson Olivier Véran in December 2002. History has already not been written as planned. After Arras, will it take a new turn?