By garnering the online vote of more than half of the Democratic delegates, Kamala Harris is assured of being invested by the party in the race for the White House. Now, she must announce the name of her new vice president.
In addition to the significant support of the Clintons, Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris has just obtained the support of more than half of the Democratic delegates before the end of the vote, this Monday, August 5, 2024. This online vote therefore ensures that she will be the Democratic Party candidate for the next American presidential election against Donald Trump. The main interested party said she was “honored” to have exceeded this threshold before the close of the vote. As a reminder, the nomination convention will take place in mid-August, in Chicago for the Democrats.
Now, it’s time to choose Kamala Harris’ running mate for the Democratic camp. As Le Monde points out: “The running mate cannot be a woman or a person of color. In short, he must be a white man so as not to scare the moderate American electorate.” The name of the chosen one could be revealed as early as Monday. Several names are already circulating, starting with the 51-year-old governor of the key state of Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro. Former astronaut turned Arizona senator Mark Kelly is also mentioned, as is Minnesota governor Tim Walz. Pete Buttigieg (Minister of Transportation) and Andy Beshear (Governor of Kentucky) are also entering the discussion.
What do the polls say?
Now, Democrats have their eyes fixed on the results of the polls. And those carried out after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, show real momentum for Kamala Harris. The survey Quinnipiac of July 22 gives it 47% against 49% for Donald Trump. The survey Morning Consult of July 22 gives voting intentions of the order of 45% for the Democrat and 47% for the Republican, but an important element to note: Kamala Harris was six points behind until then. And according to the latest poll Morning Consult As of July 29, Kamala Harris is now leading in voting intentions with 47% against 46% for the Republican. This is the first time that the Democratic candidate has been given the lead, while she has not yet been officially invested by the party as the official replacement for Joe Biden.
US Vice President Kamala Harris will indeed be the Democratic candidate for the November 5 presidential election. She is assured of the support of more than 2,500 party delegates, significantly more than the 1,976 needed to secure the nomination. However, she will not be officially nominated until August 19 and the formal counting of delegate votes.
Launched in the race for the White House only 4 months before the election, she has especially become a few days after the withdrawal of Joe Biden – who asked all Democrats to support her – the natural contender of her camp. Several liberal bigwigs, perceived as potential rivals, have also pledged allegiance to her. It must be said that the express campaign that is announced for her is forcing her camp to come together.
But the poll trend is clearly in favor of Kamala Harris. Compared to Joe Biden’s candidacy, she is doing better in all categories of voters: African-Americans, Latin Americans, WASPs. She records a net gain among male voters and among independent voters. She also gains 7 points among the least educated voters. According to this poll, moreover, Biden’s withdrawal seems to have prompted introspection among some Republican voters: 27% believe that Trump should be replaced as the Republican candidate, a figure that is on the rise.
As a reminder, the American election is played out state by state, each of them giving the candidates a batch of votes through the electors at the end of the vote. It is therefore the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision of the probable results of this American presidential election. And it is on this ground that the Democrats can have some hope: in the decisive states, the Swing States that can swing the election, Kamala Harris is doing better than Joe Biden, according to the New York Times. She is notably given the lead in the very strategic state of Virginia and is tied in Pennsylvania. Here is the map of the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes, updated daily:
His age and his career as assets
The central question remains: Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trumpwith a convinced electorate and further strengthened by the consequences and the combative image displayed after the assassination attempt on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania? The American billionaire’s team has already sharpened its weapons against Kamala Harris: management of immigration, record in California where Kamala Harris was prosecutor, personality and unflattering nickname (“Laughing Kamala”, to mock her bursts of laughter, considered not a sign of seriousness)… The arguments are already ready.
Conversely, Kamala Harris has several aces up her sleeve to counter Donald Trump and turn the campaign around. Her personal journey is impressive and the vice president knows how to remind people of this. “I am the empirical proof of the promise of America,” she regularly explains, she the African-American from an academic background who became the first woman to be elected district attorney of San Francisco, before becoming attorney general of California from 2011 to 2017.
Her integrity, with her pedigree as a prosecutor, in the face of a Republican candidate already convicted by the courts and still being prosecuted in several cases, is shaping up to be campaign arguments, like her energy already demonstrated in the Senate when she emerged as one of the faces of the opposition to… Donald Trump during the Republican magnate’s term.
Her energy but also her youth could end up seducing the Democratic camp. At 59 years old, the possible candidacy of Kamala Harris would send the announced duel between the two seniors Biden-Trump, aged 81 and 78 respectively, to oblivion. Enough to mobilize the Democratic electorate more? In polls published in recent days while a possible withdrawal of Joe Biden was already making headlines, in the event of a duel between Trump and Kamala Harris, the gap was only two points in favor of the Republican candidate. An insufficient margin for Trump before possible debates and speeches by his possible future opponent.