Surrounded by their wives, the two leaders are smiling, sitting in a traditional restaurant in the old city of Damascus. This photo is etched in the Syrian memory. Bashar al-Assad wanted to show the media that the link with his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan was not limited to politics alone, but that it was also friendly. It was in 2008, and the historic visit of the then Turkish Prime Minister was intended to help increase trade between the two countries and improve diplomatic relations. Erdogan’s image had become a part of the daily lives of Syrians; they regularly saw him on television in programs presenting him as a resister against Western imperialism. He and Assad were going to build an independent future for their countries.
Three years later, in 2011, everything changed with the Syrian revolution. Erdogan gave his full support to the rebels, and made it known that “Turkey views the Syrian crisis from a humanitarian point of view”. Later, his phrase “Assad must leave power” was repeated over and over again by Syrians, especially those who had taken refuge in Turkey. For them, Erdogan had become a savior, a protector against the savagery of the Damascus regime, almost a father. “We love you”, could be read next to his photos on many Syrian profiles on social networks. Since then, the two leaders had exchanged “pleasures”. For Assad, Erdogan was only a Brotherhood supporter. [NDLR : sympathisant des Frères musulmans] without any credibility. For Erdogan, Assad was a war criminal.
But now Erdogan has changed his rhetoric. In late June, he said there was no reason “not to establish relations between Turkey and Syria,” and said he would send an invitation to Assad at any time. This statement has caused great fear among the 3 million Syrians living in Turkey. Their return to the “butcher of Damascus” would not be pleasant, as many of them are wanted by the intelligence services. For those living in northern Syria, in the area liberated from the Assad regime and occupied by the Turkish army since 2016 – in order to “protect Turkey from the Kurds and prevent them from having an independent state threatening Turkish territory,” as Erdogan said at the time – a new agreement would put an end to the hope of the regime’s fall.
But what has changed in Erdogan’s mind? And what future for Syria if a new alliance unites Erdogan and Assad?
Growing opposition to Syrian refugees
On the eve of July 1, Kayseri, a city in central Turkey, experienced a long night. Turks destroyed property belonging to Syrian refugees, following a rumor about a sexual assault against a young Turkish woman by one of these refugees. Very quickly, investigations proved that the news was false. But the riots continued in the following days, houses, shops and cars of Syrians were burned. In northern Syria, in the Idlib region and east of Aleppo, where 4 million displaced people from the center of the country live, thousands of Syrians demonstrated and some attacked Turkish police stations. During these clashes, three Syrians were killed. Erdogan accused the Turkish opposition of being behind these events. But in reality, he is the main beneficiary of these riots.
In recent years, the Turkish leader has repeatedly threatened to flood Europe with refugees if it did not contribute funding to shelter them. In 2015, during the peak of Syrian immigration, Erdogan agreed to limit the flow of Syrians to Europe in exchange for the country opening negotiations on accession to the European Union. Refugees have always been Erdogan’s playing card. During the 2023 election campaign, he focused on the issue of voluntary repatriation of refugees, announcing that his government had already returned some 560,000 Syrian refugees to safe areas in northern Syria, and that it planned to repatriate and resettle another million in the future. But according to reports, many Syrians have been forced to return to their country after being arrested by Turkish police. Erdogan wanted to win back votes supporting his rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, known for his tough policy against refugees. This Turkish desire to expel Syrians has translated into attacks on refugees, accused of being the cause of the economic crisis, with, in 2018, a spectacular fall of the Turkish lira which caused still high inflation. Today, Turkey’s public debt is estimated at around 4 billion dollars. A normalization of relations with Assad would allow the return of Syrian immigrants, the reopening of borders and the resumption of trade.
The Godfather Putin
According to Erdogan, “it is possible to invite Putin with Assad.” But whether the Russian president is invited or not, his role will be essential. In 2019, a meeting brought together Erdogan, Putin and Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president at the time, in Turkey. The aim was to stabilize the situation in Idlib, which was in the throes of conflict. Assad’s absence from a meeting concerning his own country might have seemed surprising. But for anyone familiar with the Syrian file, it was not surprising. Since 2015, the Russians have not only saved the Assad regime from opposition attacks, they have also imposed their military presence in the country. As a result, Assad no longer has the leisure to make any decision without Putin’s agreement. Initiatives have even been taken without consulting the Syrian dictator. At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Putin opened the door to Syrians wishing to join the Russian army in its fight. Result: 16,000 of them volunteered as mercenaries.
Today, Putin has an interest in normalizing relations between Erdogan and Assad in order to reduce Western influence in the region. But there is also an economic advantage for him: the agreement between the two countries will facilitate the reconstruction of northern Syria. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly confirmed that Russian companies will be major players in the reconstruction of the country. The security guaranteed by the Turks and Assad in the North is also important for Putin, who wants to focus on Ukraine, a war that is costing Russia dearly. For its part, the Syrian regime is taking advantage of the normalization of relations to break its diplomatic isolation. Cooperation with a NATO member state could improve its image. In recent years, Assad has certainly been welcomed at Arab summits, and several embassies have reopened in Damascus. But the doors of the West are still closed to a regime accused of having used chemical weapons several times against its people since 2013.
On July 15, Assad said he was ready to meet with Erdogan, provided it was in the interests of both countries. He demanded the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria. If this were achieved, he would have the entire country under his control, ending the Syrian opposition, with the exception of some Kurdish towns in the northeast run by the Syrian Democratic Forces. These would be the first target of this new alliance.
Erdogan, yesterday’s enemy of the Damascus regime, is now seeking to reestablish an old friendship with the Syrian dictator. All signs indicate that relations between the two countries are changing and that the two autocrats will once again be seen shaking hands, probably in Ankara. For Erdogan, the “savior” of the Syrians, Assad’s war crimes will be forgotten. The economy and security will take priority in this new relationship. The Syrians, starting with the refugees, will be the big losers.
* A writer and poet born in Damascus, Omar Youssef Souleimane took part in the demonstrations against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but, hunted by the secret services, he had to flee Syria in 2012. A refugee in France, he published with Flammarion The Little Terrorist, The Last Syrian, A room in exile, and recently Being French.
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