Paris is keeping its course towards Asia. President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Bangkok on Wednesday evening to participate in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. On Thursday and Friday, the head of state will join with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the leaders of the 21 APEC members as guests. In a context burdened by the war in Ukraine, what is the point of this trip to the other side of the world? The answer is simple: Emmanuel Macron is continuing to relaunch France’s strategic ambitions in Asia-Pacific, hit hard by the crisis with Australia around a mega-submarine contract in 2021.” It is essential that France shows that it wants to anchor itself in a common reflection on the region”, underlines Sophie Boisseau du Rocher, researcher at the Asia Center of the French Institute of International Relations.
The tenant of the Elysée has been preparing the ground for several days, chaining face-to-face meetings with the political representatives of the region. He had talks last Tuesday with Chinese Presidents Xi Jinping and Indonesian President Joko Widodo before meeting Indian Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Wednesday on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia. “The President reaffirmed France’s commitment to the region to promote stability and cooperation in the face of common challenges,” said the Elysée after the meeting with the Indonesian Head of State. At the end of these meetings, Emmanuel Macron hopes above all for a “recognition” of the ambitions and influence of France.
“France also intends to increase its international stature by acting as a power of initiatives capable of providing solutions to the security, economic, health, climatic and environmental challenges facing the countries of the region”, supports Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, in a note from the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) published on November 15. This turn towards Asia is not new, since it was operated about ten years ago by Jean-Yves Le Drian, then in charge of La Défense under François Hollande, before being taken over by Emmanuel Macron. Witness his 2018 speech in Sydney, Australia, in which the Head of State extolled the virtues of an Indo-Pacific axis which he describes as “a real new geostrategic order”.
The president re-elected in 2022 has made this vast area stretching from the East African coasts to the West American coasts – hence its name “Indo-Pacific” – a strategic priority, where France has many territories and maritime areas. Indeed, 7 of the 13 French overseas departments, regions and collectivities are located in the Indian Ocean (Reunion, Mayotte and the French Southern and Antarctic Lands) or in the Pacific Ocean (New Caledonia, French Polynesia , Wallis and Futuna and Cliperton). “This presence gives France the second largest exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the world (10.2 million km²). More than 90% of the French EEZ is located in the Indo-Pacific, of which approximately 60% in the Pacific”, recalls Antoine Bondaz in his note.
France wants to show that a third way is possible
This vast maritime space gives it a leading right of scrutiny on environmental and fisheries issues, as well as the fight against ocean-related trafficking. France is also increasingly present militarily, favoring, in addition to its own points of support, growing cooperation with neighboring countries. “It is the only country in the European Union to have a significant presence in the Indo-Pacific”, underlined Colonel Pascal Ianni, spokesperson for the Chief of the Defense Staff Thierry Burkhard, in September 2021 at L’Express . Among the countries with which France has strengthened its cooperation is Indonesia, a major regional power (270 million inhabitants). “A key interlocutor, much more than a partner”, tweeted the French president, on the sidelines of the G20 in Rome in October 2021.
And the seduction operation is starting to pay off: in February, Jakarta signed a first contract for the acquisition of French Rafale fighter planes and is interested in submarines, corvettes and other military equipment. In addition to Indonesia, Emmanuel Macron multiplies partnerships. He has reconciled with his American counterpart Joe Biden, who has made amends in the AUKUS affair – the name of the alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – and is expecting him on December 1 in Washington for a state visit. It is also time for warming up with Australia and its new Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. Paris could even be in line again to sell submarines to Australia while waiting for those promised by the United States. “The Australians have understood the instrumentalization that the United States has been able to make of the AUKUS”, analyzes Sophie Boisseau du Rocher.
Good news for the French industry, Sydney continues to eye the blue-white-red offer, whether technically or logistically. And this time, there is no question of being beaten by their American allies. “The submarine crisis taught us that our military investments should be based on political rapprochement”, insists Sophie Boisseau du Rocher, specifying that this affair was both a slap in the face and a return to reality for diplomacy. French. Be that as it may, this incident has not taken it away from its final objective: France intends to make its way through this nerve center of world trade which will house 60% of the world’s population and GDP in 2030, taken squeezed between the United States and China.
A weak French military presence
“Most of the countries of the south-east do not want to align themselves with one or other of its behemoths who ask them to take sides. For its part, France hopes to show that a third way is possible and that ‘it can be found in Europe,’ deciphers the specialist. In other words, France must prove that it can fulfill the role of a solid and reliable partner. For this, France is intensifying joint exercises (India, Japan) and patrols in the China Sea, an area which concentrates tensions and where beijing multiplies the demands. “Beijing has steadily increased its grip on the region and is worrying the countries of Southeast Asia. It is not a question of excluding and confronting China but of guarding against a Chinese initiative which could be prepared in view of what we observe on the ground”, continues the researcher.
If France is agitating to strengthen the Paris-Delhi-Canberra axis, the challenges are daunting. In question: the weakness of the means deployed by Paris, in particular military, compared to the extent of the zone in which France is trying to project itself. “France weighs very little in the region, with only 8,300 soldiers present on the spot. This is one of the reasons why the countries of Asia are wondering”, continues Sophie Boisseau du Rocher. To convince, the French strategy must be “implemented in a concrete way as quickly as possible, be readable and visible”, warns AFP, researcher Céline Pajon at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). The Asian high mass will be an opportunity for Emmanuel Macron to draw the outlines.