This is the dark scenario feared by many observers: a peasant revolt, joined by the working and middle classes and, ultimately, a victory for the extreme right, as in the Netherlands. A scenario that the historian specializing in the Netherlands, professor at Sciences Po and president of the scientific council of Fondapol, Christophe de Voogd, anticipates for other European countries seized since mid-January by agricultural uprisings – starting with the hexagon.
For L’Express, the historian paints a portrait of a France whose resemblance to the Dutch case is striking. In the Netherlands, the farmers’ revolt began in 2019, between rejection of ecological standards, housing crisis and tensions over immigration. To the point of seeing the emergence here, as in this country, of a populist party bringing together rural and urban working classes? The historian foresees more “a capture of the peasant vote by already established parties”. Here again, as in the Netherlands, where the big winner of the general elections in November 2023 was the PVV of far-right leader Geert Wilders. Interview.
L’Express: The farmers’ revolt seems to be becoming widespread in Europe. With, all the same, differentiated demands depending on the country. Should we see this as a global phenomenon?
Christophe de Voogd : The simultaneity of revolts in the same sector, agriculture, and in the same area, the European Union, governed by the same policy in this area, the CAP [NDLR : politique agricole commune], reflects, I fear, shared concerns. First, regarding imports: we talk a lot about Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, which are worried about imports from Ukraine (notably cereals), but the same is true in France regarding about Ukrainian chicken. Not to mention the fear of our grain growers, powerful at the FNSEA, regarding the “Ukrainian granary”.
Another shared concern: the problem of taxation, which had already caused the emergence of yellow vests in France. In Germany, the removal of tax advantages for diesel and agricultural machinery is at the heart of the demands. In France too, we see the same motivation regarding the taxation of GNR [gazole non routier].
All these subjects are linked to the central question of ecological normativity, both European and national. Everywhere, farmers denounce the multiplication of these standards which slow down production. This was decisive in the Dutch revolt, since it was born from the rejection of a government plan proposed in 2019 aimed at reducing nitrogen emissions by 2030, in particular via the forced and accelerated reduction of the cattle herd of 30 %.
The themes you mention were already at the heart of the Dutch farmers’ revolt, which began in 2019, and whose particularity is to have gone beyond sectoral anger. Should we consider the Netherlands as a laboratory for Europe?
Absolutely. In the Netherlands, the catalyst for the revolt was ecological regulation, through the “nitrogen plan” desired by the government. However, the sector which has contributed the most to the drop in nitrogen emissions, which have halved over the last thirty years, is precisely agriculture. The fact that the Dutch government also announced extremely strict new housing standards with the eventual banning of gas boilers was one of the elements of the serious housing crisis plaguing this country. This has favored the repercussions of the agricultural movement in other categories of the population, to the point of revealing a real social divide beyond the agricultural sector.
Other European countries seem to me to meet the conditions for such a scenario. In France, the agricultural sector is, despite its faults, rather ecologically virtuous, but it finds itself singled out due to regulations that are time-consuming, excessive, often contradictory, and therefore very difficult to respect. In addition, a housing crisis is in full swing, also due to the imposition of new standards that make “thermal strainers” impossible to rent. In this context, the demands of farmers – who are more numerous than in the Netherlands and occupy a much more important place in society and in the imagination – could well play the role of catalyst for a protest extended to the working and middle classes.
In the Netherlands, a populist political party, the Farmers-Citizens Movement (BBB, for BoerBurgerBeweging), was created in the first year of protests. What do you think of his results four years later?
Pretty good ! The party’s political recipe, namely connecting the demands of rural categories and those of the urban working classes, has paid off since it made a grand slam during the provincial elections last spring, coming in first overall. of the 12 provinces of the Netherlands, several of which are nevertheless ultra-urbanized. It was totally unexpected! The BBB also took advantage of this victory by subsequently winning, during the senatorial elections which are an extension of the provincial elections through indirect suffrage, no fewer than 16 seats. [NDLR : sur 75].
The November general elections, however, seem to have halted this rise in power.
Several factors explain this mixed score. The leader of the party, Caroline van der Plas, initially warned that she did not want to be Prime Minister and affirmed her close proximity to another party, the NSC [NDLR : Nouveau contrat social, classé au centre-droit], which was created in 2023. Opinion surveys have confirmed, in fact, that the electorates of these two parties were very porous. A good part of the voters of the farmer-citizen movement therefore left for the NSC, which took up the peasant demands. And another part went to the radical right of the PVV, the big winner of the legislative elections at the end of 2023, which was able to lead a vigorous fight against the excess of standards on production and consumption.
In fact, at the end of this election, the far right emerged victorious. Opposing, as the BBB does, the “elites” to the “people”, does this not, sooner or later, open the way to the extreme right?
In addition to a very good campaign on a technical level, the leader of the far-right party, Geert Wilders, adopted an effective political strategy: he left aside his most extreme views, notably against Islam, to concentrate on the social issues, what spoke to the left, ecological, what spoke to the peasants, governance, what spoke to everyone, making the link with the central theme of its program: the fight against immigration. However, the Second Dutch Chamber [NDLR : l’équivalent de notre Assemblée nationale] had just adopted a law for the forced distribution of asylum seekers throughout the country, which was very divisive. The issue of immigration was the No. 1 motivation for the PVV vote. And the adoption of this distribution law by the First Chamber [l’équivalent de notre Sénat], which has just taken place this month, only strengthens the popularity of the PVV which would today collect a third of the votes if the legislative elections took place today, compared to 25% last November. This is another point in common with France, where the government, as we know, distributes asylum seekers throughout the territory.
In France, does the scenario of the creation of a party capable of bridging the gap between the urban working classes and rural demands seem plausible to you, five years after the political failure of the yellow vest movement?
The French-style proportional majority vote is more likely to discourage this type of initiative. Remember that the National Rally has long represented approximately 20 to 30% of French people while having no or few deputies in the National Assembly. The incredible breakthrough of the BBB also has a lot to do with the nature of the full proportional representation in force in the Netherlands. In this scheme, it is much simpler for a young party to find a place in Parliament (which has 15!). Not to mention the pedigree of the party leader, Caroline van der Plas, who was a journalist then a communicator in the agri-food sector, and is very sensitive to the concerns of the rural world. I think that France is heading towards another type of scenario…
What do you think ?
A capture of the peasant vote by already established parties. In this perspective, the big beneficiary will undoubtedly be the National Rally, provided that it manages to make the link between peasant anger and the theme of immigration. The machine is already underway! The recent tragedy of Pamiers, where the occupants of the car which hit a farmer in Ariège were Armenians targeted by an OQTF [NDLR : obligation de quitter le territoire] or even the slogans comparing the cost of immigration and urban policy with that of aid to the agricultural and rural world already show the amalgamation made between the various subjects.
You do not mention ecologists, these “natural allies” of farmers according to Marine Tondelier, general secretary of EELV…
Political ecology has made many mistakes, and what’s more, suffers from a reputation as a party of “disconnected urbanites”. French environmentalists have, for example, defended drastic energy measures which are partly responsible for the housing crisis. By putting the cart of ecology before the horse of livestock and favoring energy sobriety over the supply of housing – and therefore forgetting the essential needs of citizens – ecologists have attracted the wrath of good people. number of French people from the working and middle classes, including rural people.
Should we conclude that ecology will be the big loser in this revolt?
On a European scale, there will of course be strong generational and geographical differences, but political ecology faces serious problems if it does not review its programmatic agenda. This does not mean that ecology as such is discredited. Quite the contrary. Farmers have become aware of a certain number of environmental issues. They act accordingly as long as they can, but refuse to do so at the cost of their suicide. We can understand them! A rational and reasonable ecology could very well find its way. Moreover, the Green Germans [NDLR : le parti des Verts] are already modifying their software. In 2022, for example, they accepted the extension of the operation of two of the three nuclear power plants still in operation.
In your opinion, will this wave of protest play a role in the European elections?
Everything depends on the response that the French government will provide. Will he address the subject in depth, providing structural responses to farmers’ problems, or will he be content, once again, to write a check? Gabriel Attal seems to have taken stock of the challenge: but does he have the political, financial and regulatory means required, when we know both the European prerogatives in this area and the very vertical and normative “habitus” of the French administration? If the response is not satisfactory, I think it will pay dearly in the European elections. Especially after the decision of the Constitutional Council on the Immigration law, which could open the way to a crystallization of all themes for the benefit of the radical right, as in the Netherlands. It is therefore up to the governing parties to find a serious response to these challenges, which it is now futile, as the Dutch precedent shows, to want to hide under the carpet.
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