How far can Ilham Aliev go? Since the recapture by force of the unrecognized Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in September and the flight of 120,000 Armenians – counted as 100,000 during the exodus – who had populated this disputed territory for more than thirty years , the popularity of the Azerbaijani autocrat explodes.
In power since 2003, the head of state then took advantage of his incontestable victory over Armenia to call an early presidential election next February, where he intends to be re-elected for seven additional years. Aged 61, son of the former head of the Azerbaijani section of the Soviet KGB and then president of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliev, he has for years crushed all forms of opposition, including those who criticize his crusade against the Armenian enemy. .
Because its position has always been clear: Azerbaijan’s territorial ambitions do not stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and often refers to Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan”. Something to worry Yerevan. “Cutting Armenia in two is the threat posed by Turkey and Azerbaijan,” warns an Armenian diplomatic source.
Unpredictable situation
In 2024, has the autocrat changed his plans? This is what we could believe, at the end of 2023, with an astonishing statement common between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where each affirmed its desire to appease their relationship and agreed on a reciprocal exchange of prisoners. But until reaching a peace treaty, “there remains the thorny question of the delimitation of borders and the control of communication routes”, specifies Olesya Vartanyan, Armenian expert at the Crisis Group think tank, because each state claims hundreds of square kilometers of territory under the occupation of the other.
However, the Azerbaijani head of state is reluctant to begin negotiations with Armenia, which is demanding Western mediation, demanding solid guarantees in the event of further aggression from Azerbaijan. For Yerevan, finally achieving peace is a pressing issue: in military inferiority compared to its neighbor, “if the negotiations fail, new clashes between the two countries are highly possible”, explains Nurlan Huseïnov, analyst at the Institute Research Institute of Baku. “Azerbaijan can launch a military operation to seize landlocked villages and pretend that it is not Armenian territory” in the south of this small country, he continues, adding that possible Western sanctions against Azerbaijan could, however, dissuade it. New aggression or not, Ilham Aliev will in any case want to maintain a weakened and isolated Armenia in the Caucasus.