Argentina – France: prediction, odds, probabilities, history… But who is the favourite?

Argentina and France meet again, four years later, in the World Cup final this Sunday. The forecasts begin to be refined two days before the shock. Here are the main odds and an overview of the history of confrontations…

Is there really a favourite? While France and Argentina will face each other for a third star in the World Cup this Sunday, December 18 (kick-off at 4 p.m.), the first forecasts for this anthology final are extremely tight. The odds of the main bookmakers and online betting sites show it: France’s victory is 2.69 on average two days before the final confrontation of the World Cup, when Argentina’s is at 2.79.

Despite the slight advantage to the Blues, as much to say that there is not the thickness of a sheet of paper between the forecasts. Here are the odds taken from the main betting sites at midday on Friday.

The main odds of Argentina – France

What predictions for the exact score?

Proof if it were needed of the extreme vagueness which still surrounds the outcome of this final: the odds for the exact score of the match are also in a pocket handkerchief. The victory of Argentina or France by 1 goal to 0 as well as a draw 0 to 0 display exactly the same forecast at Winamax for example, ie 6.5. It is finally the scenario of a draw 1 to 1 which is best rated at 5.3.

A 2-1 win is 9.5 on either side and a 2-0 win is a point higher, at 10.5, but with no advantage for either team. The odds of victory are at 1.9 for France and Argentina, again in perfect equality.

The history of matches in favor of Argentina

We could always cling to the very, very slight advantage of France in the bookmakers’ odds, but the history of confrontations between the Blues and Argentina would tend to rebalance the balance, with an advantage at Albiceleste. Over a dozen matches since 1930, there have been 6 victories for Argentina, 3 draws and only 3 French victories.

If we remove the friendlies and only keep the World Cup matches, we still find two victories for Argentina in the group stage: 2-1 in 1978, the year in which the Albiceleste won the trophy at home and 1-0 in 1930, the year of the very first World Cup, during which the Argentines lost to the host country, Uruguay, in the final (4-3).

But France has the upper hand in the very last confrontation of course, with the completely crazy round of 16 of 2018 with the goals of Griezmann (penalty), Pavard and Mbappé for a double (4-3). And many of the players from that era are still on the pitch in Qatar this year, unlike those from 1978 and 1930…