Argentina, Burma, Liberia… The geopolitical hopes of 2024 – L’Express

The year 2024, which sees the continuation of two deadly wars watched by the whole world, in Ukraine and Gaza, promises to be particularly eventful. In the coming months, the threats will be innumerable: Russia’s rise in power in Ukraine, general conflagration in the Middle East, Chinese military pressure on Taiwan, North Korean provocations, Iran’s access to the atomic bomb, cooperation from increasingly close between Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang… And this, during a year which will include more than 70 elections on the planet, including the American presidential election. But the worst is not always certain and dictators are not eternal. The year may have some good surprises in store for us.

In Burma, the junta threatened by rebellions

Will the dictatorship have to lay down its arms in 2024? When on February 1, 2021 the Burmese armed forces, the Tatmadaw, seized power from a democratically elected government, they seemed impossible to dislodge. Three years later, the situation offers a glimmer of hope. The soldiers who, to justify their coup d’état, invoked the need to preserve the unity of the country, threatened according to them by a corrupt civil power and irredentist ethnic minorities, succeeded in creating a union: that of the people against them.

The bloody repression of peaceful civil demonstrations has triggered or stimulated a multitude of armed movements. There was the awakening of “traditional” mountain ethnic organizations (Karens, Karennis, Palaungs, Kachins, etc.) but also, in the central plain, the creation of hundreds of groups from the Bamar ethnic majority, an uprising that had not been not expected the generals. By the end of 2023, the insurgents controlled a large part of Burmese territory. So much so that interim President Myint Swe speaks of a country “threatened to break up”. In early January, rebels captured the town of Laukkai, in northern Chan State, eastern Burma. In total, the resistance now controls several hundred junta posts, more or less strategic.

The junta notably underestimated the determination of a generation of young people who, brutally deprived of a decade of freedom (between 2011 and 2020), found themselves at the forefront of armed resistance. The Tatmadaw, despite significant human (numerous casualties, desertions) and territorial setbacks, nevertheless remains master of the air – its aviation creates a reign of terror among civilian populations – and still relies on well-trained infantry units with strong stockpiles of weapons. The opposition, divided on its objectives, suffers from the absence of a unified command. It will also be necessary to see if the big Chinese neighbor, the main trading partner which has continued to support the junta, can or will influence the latter in its deadly strategy.

The Falklands War will not take place

How do you recognize an Argentinian? To his love of football and his conviction that the Falkland Islands, 600 kilometers from Tierra del Fuego, are Argentinian. Like his predecessors, ultraliberal President Javier Milei, in power since December 10, claims sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas, in Spanish), where 3,000 Britons live. However, forty years after the United Kingdom’s victory in the Falklands War of 1982, Milei – paradoxically an admirer of Margaret Thatcher – would like to negotiate a handover on the Hong Kong model: “We had a war – which we lost – , and now we must do everything possible to recover the islands through diplomatic channels,” he said during the campaign. However, 99% of natives are against it.

Tusk, the Donald we like…

The illiberal drift of a country is not inevitable. Demonstration made with the return, at the head of the Polish government, of the liberal Donald Tusk, after eight years in power of the Eurosceptic ultraconservatives of the Law and Justice party. Good news for Poland, as for the European Union: “Tusk has already been Prime Minister, before chairing the European Council, and has a perfect mastery of the institutional game, points out Lukas Macek, associate researcher at the Jacques-Delors Institute. In Brussels, the positive influence that he will exert, thanks to the constructive strategy of his government, will allow Poland, at the center of the continental game with the war in its Ukrainian neighbor, to punch above its weight in 2024. demographic and economic.”

In Liberia, a peaceful transition of power

A “fair and free” election, according to Joe Biden. The November presidential election in Liberia – five million inhabitants – was praised for its progress. The outgoing president and former football star, George Weah, quickly recognized the victory of his opponent, Joseph Boakai (50.6% of the vote). And thus dispelled fears of post-electoral unrest in this country located at the heart of a particularly sensitive region. “This action marked a notable peaceful transition of power at a time when many West African countries have experienced a resurgence of military coups, manipulation of presidential term limits and tainted elections. allegations of misconduct,” points out the Wilson Center, based in Washington. The new president – aged 78 – will take office on January 22.