This is a worrying dynamic for French companies. In the first half of the year, 33,493 of them went bankrupt, according to data published this Wednesday, July 3 by administrators and receivers. That is an increase of 18% compared to the same period in 2023. A number higher than that of the pre-Covid period… And which could get even worse. In a LinkedIn post taken up by The echoes, Patrick Senicourt, president of Nota-PME, anticipates a total of 70,000 bankruptcies for the year 2024.
An order of magnitude confirmed by Thierry Million, the director of studies at Altares Dun & Bradstreet, who is counting on 64,000 failures (including backups) by the end of the year, according to NetPMEa service site dedicated to VSEs and SMEs. However, it is counting on a “slow improvement that is taking shape” with the slowdown in inflation.
This note of optimism is not, however, shared by the Rexecode institute. In an overview published at the end of June, it projects that “the increase goes beyond a catch-up process after companies went dormant after Covid.”
For the first half of 2024, approximately 102,000 jobs are thus under threat, according to figures provided by the National Council of Judicial Administrators and Judicial Representatives (CNAJMJ) and the Economic Data Observatory (ODE). The latter emphasize in particular the recent judicial recovery of Milee, a communications company that employs around ten thousand people.
In a note published on the BNP Paribas website last Juneeconomist Stéphane Colliac attributes this trend to several factors. He points to results well below the average over the last three years, also recalls the responsibility of the sudden increase in interest rates and the current situation of slowing growth.
Three sectors particularly affected
“The continued dynamism of business creation is another element that distinguishes the current period from previous ones […]. A dynamism that is the opposite of the declines observed during previous episodes of rising bankruptcies,” the economist nevertheless puts things into perspective, although he is aware that this dynamic does not concern the construction and real estate agency sectors.
The CNAJMJ and ODE report also highlights the sectors where the increase in insolvencies is the most significant: real estate activities – with an increase rate of insolvencies estimated at 72% in the first half of 2024 compared to the pre-Covid period -, financial and insurance activities, and information communication.
Denis Ferrand, president of the Rexecode institute, highlights the role of repayments of state-guaranteed loans (PGE) as a major cause of business failures. “The companies that fail are those that are more indebted than average,” he says in The echoes.
More than 680,000 PGE were contracted during the crisis, representing an amount of 144 billion euros. At the end of November, 52% had been reimbursed, according to The world. Rescheduling the repayment could be a solution, given the pressure. Bercy had already decided on such a measure at the beginning of the year, postponing the repayment deadline to 2026.