GAS SHUTDOWN. French gas stocks should make it possible to get through the winter, but risks of tension remain possible in the event of a very cold season.
[Mis à jour le 14 septembre 2022 à 16h55] France should have enough gas to survive the winter. The director of the transmission network operator GRTgaz, Thierry Trouve, declared it himself on Wednesday September 14 in a statement specifying the excellent filling rate of gas stocks: “Their filling rate is already 94% (84% on average in Europe) and will be close to 100% at the start of winter”. These substantial stocks should, according to estimates, allow France to be “capable of coping” with an average winter but in no way change the Prime Minister’s speech on the need to achieve energy savings through energy sobriety. The director of GRTgaz has also followed in Matignon’s footsteps by inviting individuals and professionals to save and reduce their consumption “right now” because these savings will be crucial to cope with a very cold winter.
If gas cuts are not a priori to be feared in the coming months, GRTgaz has warned of “situations of tension [qui] could however develop during the winter”, he notably mentioned the “risks of imposed reductions in consumption which would only concern large consumers”. Caution is therefore always in order, as is the government’s call for energy sobriety , again repeated by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne on September 14 during a press conference. And for good reason, if the French gas network makes it possible to approach winter serenely, this is not the case for the electricity network and gas could serve as a currency of exchange with other European electricity-producing countries. The director of the GRTgaz network operator has also announced the establishment of a new gas export capacity from France to Germany in “mid-October”. The good news is that faced with the previously announced risk of gas cuts, but above all because of the significant rise in gas prices, the French have already voluntarily or by financial constraint lowered their consumption by 4 to 5% according to the figures. recorded.
If the stocks will be filled at the beginning of winter, this does not mean that no problems can arise. Indeed, when gas storage is 100% in France, this represents 130 TWh, or a third of the country’s annual consumption. In the columns of Parisian, an Engie executive explains that it is “the equivalent of two months of our national consumption”. These stocks alone, as they stand, will therefore not be enough to last all winter. Thus, it will be necessary to continue to supply them during the season.
This is where a first problem arises: because thanks to what deliveries will France be able to fill its stocks? Russia, a gas producer, has closed the supply tap with France, prices are soaring and the government even fears that orders placed will not be honored in the face of the current tension on the gas market.
In addition, the weather will be a determining factor. For now, “we have the volumes [de gaz, NDLR] which are necessary for us in an average climate” according to the deputy director general of Engie, Claire Waysand, present on August 29 at the start of the Medef school year. But in the event of cold waves or if the winter promises to be harsher, the needs in gas will become more important and will create “hours or days of tension” according to the Minister for Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
Thus, France risks having to ration the use of gas to avoid any shortage. Consume less, everywhere, to get more out of it: that’s the watchword for the coming winter. Thus, gas cuts could occur. But not everyone will be affected.
What are the risks of gas shortages in France?
It is difficult to assess the risks of a gas shortage which will largely depend on the weather forecasts or the cold peaks expected this winter. In the event of a season with mild temperatures, the risk of breakdowns will be reduced, but the government prefers to prepare for the worst scenario before the first forecasts from Météo-France expected at the end of September and announces possible gas cuts or occasional rationing.
Companies and factories would then be the only ones affected by the cuts, or at least “the first affected”. Individuals, who mainly use gas for heating or cooking, will still be called upon to reduce their consumption as much as possible “taking into account their means”. Emmanuel Macron thus asked not to put the heating above 19°C. What, according to him, save 10% of consumption. Elisabeth Borne and Olivier Véran have assured that households who are already in energy poverty will not be asked to make efforts. If occasional gas cuts were not enough to protect against the shortage, shedding operations could be organised, i.e. sudden and unexpected cuts.
Gas cuts as a solution? For who ?
The government’s goal remains to avoid gas cuts by anticipating and above all reducing energy consumption. The objective of a 10% reduction was set by Elisabeth Borne for companies and professionals, but also individuals, at the beginning of September. This reduction must be made possible by an energy sobriety plan that each company must establish in September. The first avenues for reflection on the reduction in consumption relate to heating – companies could be invited to lower the temperature of their premises to 19°C this winter – or even to illuminated advertisements. The Council of State is also examining a decree prohibiting the lighting of company logos and premises at night.
Reducing the use of heating is also a measure to which individuals are invited. It would be a question of lowering the temperature by one or a few degrees to approach or reach 19°C. For households, energy sobriety must above all go through daily reflexes and eco-gestures. The government has announced the forthcoming distribution of a communication campaign on the right things to do to reduce gas consumption.
In addition, occasional gas cuts could be decided. “If all the assumptions are unfavorable, there may be restrictions”, warned Elisabeth Borne still at the beginning of September. But they will not concern households. “There will be no gas cut for households,” she reassured. These are the companies that could be concerned: “on gas, we are not going to cut off individuals. So, we discuss with companies that consume a lot of gas to see what the consequences would be if we cut off the gas in a company.” But the device is only in the draft, at this stage.