It is important for Russia to maintain its influence in its ally Kazakhstan. How important is Kazakhstan for Russia? Even its 7,600-kilometer border with the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan shows how important this country is to Russia. The border between the two countries forms one of the longest land borders in the world. Besides the length of the land border, Kazakhstan is also of great military importance. For example, part of the Kapustin Yar military test base is located on the territory of Kazakhstan. Russia, geopolitically, sees Kazakhstan as its backyard, as it does in the whole region.
Russia’s sending troops to the country at the request of the President of Kazakhstan Kasım Cömert Tokayev to contribute to the containment of the protests is also related to its own interests. Russia leads the “peacekeeping forces” sent within the scope of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) formed by the former Soviet republics.
Evaluating the developments in Kazakhstan to DW, Russian political science expert Nikolay Petrov thinks that the protests in Kazakhstan pose a “serious threat” to Russia. Petrov points out that the Russia-Kazakhstan border is not well-protected due to its length.
Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan
Compared to the former Soviet republics, Kazakhstan, which is large in terms of surface area and has a high level of prosperity, is the country that has the most close relations with Russia. Along with Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus, he pioneered the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union, which is considered among the prestige projects of Russian President Vladimir Putin and takes the European Union as an example. According to official data, Kazakhs, whose number exceeded 60 thousand, made up the largest group among foreign students studying at Russian universities in 2020.
In surveys conducted by the Leweda Center for Public Opinion in Moscow, one-third of Russians for years considered Kazakhstan as the next friendly country after Belarus. In these surveys asking friendly countries, Kazakhstan has been in the third place after China since 2014.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mushstin and Kazakhstan Prime Minister Askar Mamin, whose resignation was accepted, announced in December that the trade volume had reached a record level. Another reason why Kazakhstan is strategically important for Moscow is that the Baikonur Cosmodrome is located on the territory of Kazakhstan. Russia pays Kazakhstan about 115 million dollars a year in rent for this space base inherited from the former Soviet Union to Kazakhstan. Although Russia is building a new spaceport on its territory, it plans to continue using Baikonur as well.
Russian oil companies operate in Kazakhstan as well as US-based oil companies. Russia also has a participation in the uranium enterprises in Kazakhstan. Moscow is also making plans to build a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan soon. Upon the increase in electricity demand in Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan requested assistance from Russia in electricity supply.
Despite the cooperation between the two countries in different fields, in an analysis of the Russian Foreign Relations Council, one of the think tanks in Moscow, it was stated that Russia did not constitute an “attractive model” for the social and economic development of Kazakhstan. It was stated that the administration and society of the Central Asian country had “different role models” from Europe to Turkey and Singapore.
Can Russia annex the north of Kazakhstan?
Unlike Belarus, Kazakhstan, which is not dependent on Russian loans, also wants to maintain a certain distance with Moscow despite its close relations with Russia. Kazakhstan’s decision to use the Latin alphabet instead of the Cyrillic alphabet was considered in Russia as ‘to put a distance’ on the relations between the two countries.
On the other hand, the number of Russians living in the northern regions of Kazakhstan, which has a population of approximately 19 million, is approaching 3 million 500 thousand. In both countries, there has been speculation for years that Russia may annex Kazakhstan’s northern regions, as has happened in the Crimean Peninsula. President Kasım Cömert Tokayev rejected such speculations in an interview with DW in 2019 and stated that the relations between the two countries are “absolutely safe and on the basis of neighborliness”.
A polemic at the end of 2020 actually revealed how these speculations created tension. Vyatsheslav Nikonov, a member of the Duma of the lower house of the Russian parliament, described the territory of Kazakhstan as “a great gift from Russia”. Upon the reaction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan to this statement, Nikonov took a step back, and President Tokayev wrote an article advocating the independence of Kazakhstan.
Now, there are discussions on social media platforms regarding Russia’s attitude towards Kazakhstan. In these discussions, it is claimed that Putin can use the military units he sent as part of “peacekeeping” as an opportunity to make his military presence in Kazakhstan permanent. Russia does not have a military base in Kazakhstan.
Concern for the “color revolution”
Protests in Kazakhstan are also a nightmare for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin refers to such protests as “color revolutions”, citing the pink revolution in Georgia and the orange revolution in Ukraine. Moscow claims that the West is behind such protests.
Again, in Armenia, one of Russia’s allies, the protests in 2018 resulted in success. Aleksander Lukashenko, who declared himself the president after the 2020 elections in Belarus, suppressed the protests with violence. “All of Russia’s major neighbors have been shaken by social unrest,” Russia expert Hans-Henning Schröder told DW. “Anyone sitting in the Kremlin has to wonder if Russia will be the next country.”
Roman Goncharenko
© Deutsche Welle English