The Trump wave has not only engulfed the United States. In the Southern States too, the Republican’s return to the White House arouses enthusiasm. Thus, in India, Saudi Arabia, China, Turkey and Brazil, those who think that the Trump presidency will be positive for the United States, their country and world peace are the most numerous, according to a recent study of the European Council on International Relations. Clearly, America’s allies, like the Europeans and the South Koreans, who depend on Washington for their security, are practically the only ones to worry. Only 22% of EU members surveyed – and 15% of Britons – consider Trump’s election to be good news for their country. They are 84% in India and 61% in Saudi Arabia.
The reaction of non-Western people reflects “adherence to a much more transactional world”, Trump style, and the erosion of the liberal international order, explain the authors. From now on, middle powers are primarily looking for partners to advance their national interests on this or that specific subject. They could see in the person of the 47th American president a means of achieving this, if they succeed in attracting his good graces. Especially since the Republican leader, whose defense of human rights is not a priority, is ready to make “deals” with everyone.
Will peace in Gaza last?
The West’s weakening as a geopolitical bloc is evident in its failure to isolate Moscow, almost three years after the invasion of Ukraine. The proportion of Indians and Chinese who consider Russia an ally has even increased since January 2023, notes the poll. And divisions between Europeans could further increase in the face of a new American administration which considers the EU an adversary.
In the short term, the Trumpian approach, that is to say the advent of international power struggles, could stimulate ways out of crises. The pressure he exerted on Israel and Hamas has, as we have seen, facilitated a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of new hostages. It remains to be seen whether this peace will last. And if the “Trump effect” will make it possible to end the war in Ukraine, as the Republican promised.
Let’s hope so, even if the new president has already warned that the solution will not come overnight, contrary to what he announced during his campaign. But, at the same time, Donald Trump’s questioning of international bodies and universal values also risks weakening liberal democracies (to the benefit of populists and autocrats) and cooperation on global issues, such as the fight against global warming and pandemic prevention. And not just for four years…