The world after does not exist, chapter 3. After home delivery and video games, it is online dating apps that are undergoing a harsh return to post-Covid reality. One of the stars of the sector, Bumble, launched in 2014 to give women the upper hand, is going through a stock market ordeal. Last month, after significantly reducing its growth forecasts – between 1 and 2% compared to 8 to 11% initially expected – the stock fell 30%. Since its introduction, the company’s capitalization has been divided by 10, going from 8 billion to 800 million dollars.
Its IPO in 2021 came at the height of the zero-interest money euphoria. At the time, dating apps seemed to be becoming the norm in terms of seduction. The number of monthly users had increased from 130 million to 155 million in two years, according to Sensor Tower. It has since fallen back to 137 million, representing a modest annual growth of 5%. Bumble’s main competitor is not doing much better. Match Group, the owner of Tinder, Match, OkCupid and Hinge, has reported a decline in its total number of paying users for seven consecutive quarters, which now stands at less than 15 million.
The industry has transformed considerably in ten years, moving from paid online dating services to free mobile applications with instant notifications. They have become massively widespread and have entered our daily lives. Lockdowns have further accelerated their adoption. According to a study by Pew Research3 in 10 U.S. adults say they have used a dating site or app, the same proportion as in 2019. But only 9% say they have done so in the past year. Online dating is more common among younger adults than older adults. About half of those under 30 say they have used a site or app, compared with 37% of those ages 30 to 49, 20% of those ages 50 to 64, and 13% of those ages 65 and older. Today, 1 in 5 U.S. adults under 30 in a relationship say they met their current spouse or partner on a dating site or app.
Celibacy has become trendy
Starting in 2015, these apps began to be heavily monetized, with a freemium model where unlimited actions became paid. Tinder’s most exclusive offering now costs $6,000 per year. Despite this unbridled pursuit of profit, the market is only worth around ten billion dollars, with Match Group representing a third of that.
Outside of the big players, dating apps have become fragmented in terms of audiences, by gender, religion or interest. The search for a soul mate via physical communities, whether it be book clubs or running clubs, is making a comeback. It seems more authentic and sincere compared to the cold infinity of options offered by digital. Infinity that creates weariness, the “dating fatigue”Nearly half of online daters say they have had negative experiences on these platforms.
Worse, the ads are starting to get old. In May, Bumble launched an anti-single ad campaign, featuring a woman determined to give up dating and become a nun to avoid temptation. Except the nun in question finds herself lusting after the convent’s handsome gardener. The campaign sparked a backlash. The ads were pulled and the company apologized. Singledom has become fashionable, embraced by celebrities like Khloé Kardashian. New York magazine The Cut even made it a trend.
To break out of this downward spiral, Whitney Wolfe Herd, co-founder of Tinder and founder of Bumble, brandished artificial intelligence at the Bloomberg Tech conference in San Francisco in May. It is already being used, notably for censoring obscene content and generating catchphrases. But Whitney Wolfe Herd went further, declaring that conversational agents will soon flirt with each other, to find the perfect match for you. A certain vision of love at first sight.
Robin Rivaton is CEO of Stonal and member of the scientific council of the Foundation for Political Innovation (Fondapol)
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