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By 2050, antibiotic resistance could directly cause more than 39 million deaths worldwide, according to a study published in The Lancet. If the situation continues to worsen, drug-resistant infections will increasingly threaten global health. However, appropriate measures could avert this dire scenario and save millions of lives.
Already recognised as a major health challenge, antibiotic resistance – when bacteria or other pathogens undergo changes that prevent them from responding to antimicrobial treatments – is expected to worsen.
A growing threat to global health
For the first time, this study assesses the impact of antibiotic resistance over time and attempts to estimate its evolution.
From 1990 to 2021, more than a million people per year worldwide succumbed directly to antibiotic resistance, according to its authors. They looked at 22 pathogens, 84 combinations between pathogens and treatments, 11 infectious syndromes in people of all ages, from 204 countries and territories, using data from more than 520 million people.
Children less affected, elderly people on the front line
Over the past three decades, deaths of children under five directly caused by antibiotic resistance have fallen by more than 50% as infection prevention and control has improved among infants and young children.
Less frequent in these children, infections have however become more difficult to treat when they occur.
At the same time, deaths of adults aged 70 and over jumped by more than 80% over the period, with populations ageing rapidly and older people becoming more vulnerable to infections.
As for pathogens, deaths from methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have increased the most worldwide. For Gram-negative bacilli, resistance to carbapenems has increased the most.
Nearly 2 million deaths per year worldwide by 2050
And in the coming decades, deaths from antibiotic resistance will continue to increase.
The number of direct victims could reach 1.91 million per year worldwide by 2050, a jump of more than 67% compared to 2021, according to models made by the researchers.
By the middle of this century, antibiotic resistance is expected to play a larger role in 8.22 million deaths each year, an increase of 74.5% compared to 2021.
In total, between 2025 and 2050, antibiotic resistance could directly cause more than 39 million deaths worldwide and would be associated with 169 million deaths, scientists estimate.
Solutions exist to prevent millions of deaths
But less pessimistic scenarios are possible.
Improved treatment of infections and access to antibiotics could prevent 92 million deaths worldwide between 2025 and 2050, particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, according to the authors of the study.