What will happen now? Are we going to live with Covid-19 indefinitely? Can a new variant still arise? And herd immunity in all this? Scientists speak at the National Assembly.
You will also be interested
[EN VIDÉO] Are we protected against Covid by having been infected? A coronavirus infection induces an acquired immune response. But for how long is it effective against variants?
On Thursday February 3, 2022, the National Assembly held a public hearing on the following topic: What prospects for the pandemic of Covid-19 ? Should we change the strategy to fight the virus? “. It was organized by the Parliamentary Office for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technical Choices (Opecst). The objective of this meeting was to gather the opinion of eminent scientists such as Jean-François Delfraissy and Alain Fischer in order to adapt the government’s health policy.
Tensions in the hospital
Regarding hospitalizations, different models have been presented. A news wave hospitalizations related to Omicron variant is possible in 2022. This will depend on the exact mortality of the Omicron variant, not yet fully described. As a reminder, the Omicron variant was detected for the first time at the end of November in South Africa. Even if he reveals his secrets little by little, we still lack perspective to be able to characterize him completely.
The possible occurrence of a new variant
The coronavirus entered our lives two years ago now. Since then, the variants have followed one another: Alpha, Delta and Omicron. The occurrence of a new variant is unpredictable and can happen at any time. The more the virus circulates, the more it has the opportunity to mutate and give rise to a new variant. As the circulation of the virus is important at the moment in the world, the emergence of a new variant cannot be excluded.
Luckily, the Omicron variant turned out to be much less severe than the Delta variant. If it is certain that, when a variant becomes dominant, it is necessarily more contagiousnothing is certain concerning the severity: the dominant variant can be either more dangerous or less dangerous than the previous one.
Herd immunity
Herd immunity is no longer a goal to achieve, according to Judith Mueller, professor of epidemiology at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health. It is impossible with the vaccines available and the variants currently circulating. On the other hand, individual immunity against severe forms of the disease is desirable and possible. This would allow us to go from pandemic to endemic, a situation where the virus would occur punctually and locally. Health management would then resemble that of flu.
Pandemic indicators
For a long time, the number of new cases has been communicated every day. But is this indicator really relevant with a very contagious but mild variant like Omicron? Jean-François Delfraissy stresses that the indicators should rather reflect hospital tensions.
In conclusion, the continuation of theepidemic is very difficult to imagine: it depends on many factors including the possible appearance of a new, totally unpredictable variant. In the meantime, the vaccination (with booster dose) remains an effective weapon.
Interested in what you just read?