No, analyzing the dramatic situation in Russia that began on the Midsummer weekend in terms of winners and losers is actually impossible. The power struggle between President Putin and the leader of the Wagner Forces, Yevgeny Prigozhin is far too complicated for that. And many details are still unclear.
On the evening of Midsummer’s Day, we receive information that the Russian Wagner groups are returning to their bases. This was finally decided by the leader Yevgeny Prigozhin after a dramatic day. The announcement came after negotiations between representatives of President Putin and the leaders of the Wagner troops. Belarus President Lukashenko was the mediating intermediary.
At the time of writing, it appears that Prigozhin did not get what he wanted, namely that Defense Minister Shoigu would leave his post. The demand was made when Wagner soldiers occupied military facilities in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.
“1-0 to Putin?”
Putin remains in power while the Wagner troops have to retreat. Then it was 1–0 to Putin, right? He remains Russia’s leader, while Prigozhin, by all accounts, has now definitely lost his old friend Putin’s trust for good.
The Minister of Defense remains. Still. And the Wagner troops do not appear heroic, despite their reputation as the military Russian elite. Putin called them mutineers.
In the short term, Putin may have won success. After all, Wagner’s troops failed to take the Russian capital, something that seemed to become a reality when the city’s mayor issued warnings to the residents.
But in the long term, Putin is the loser. It is hard to see how the Russian president can play off the fact that the elite force mutinied and that for the first time in thirty years it looked as if Russian soldiers would be turned against each other. A leader who has no control over the monopoly of violence has problems, big problems.
“In plain English: major trouble”
And in plain English: major trouble – yes, of course it is when an elite force that has received loads of awards and medals eventually turns into a force that commits mutiny – according to Putin’s own way of describing reality. There is no getting away from it. Regardless of what happens, Putin’s position of power has been damaged.
He may recover, but in the future, Russians, Ukrainians and citizens of the world alike will know that the midsummer holiday of 2023 showed that the ground can shake even under an all-powerful leader like Putin. At least it seems that way right now. There are many fog curtains in Russia.