Therese Johaug is in a tight spot on New Year’s Eve, when it comes to winning the Tour de Ski, writes journalist Atte Husu.
Atte Husu
When the four-time Olympic champion and 14-time world champion Therese Johaug participates in the Tour de Skille, he is automatically among the favorites to win the race.
Three of the four previous times of participation have ended with Johaug’s party. Then 2014 only earthy Marit Björgen has remained ahead of Johaug when the overall results have been viewed at the top of the final ascent of Alpe Cermis. This happened in 2015.
At that time, Björgen reached the skied final stage almost three minutes ahead of Johaug. Björgen lost to Johaug in the final skiing race of the tour by less than a minute.
Ten years later, Johaug is in many ways a different skier than he was in 2015. After the doping conviction he suffered in 2016-2018, he dominated the World Cup and won each of his nine individual ranking starts between 2019-2022, until retiring on maternity leave.
Johaug, who returned to international competitions this season, showed at the beginning of December in Lillehammer that she still belongs to the absolute elite of women’s skiing.
In the competitions held outside of Norway, Johaug has instead been an ordinary mortal as a skier. On Sunday, he failed in the Tour de Ski 15 km co-start in his breakaway attempt and finished in the US Jessie Diggins winning the race only sixth, 4.6 seconds behind Diggins.
No bonus seconds were awarded for placings at the stage, so in the overall race Johaug’s gap with Digginis, who won the first two races, did not increase significantly from the results of the sprint that opened the tour. Johaug, who finished in 40th place, took one minute and nine seconds from Diggins.
The history of the final ascent
The result of Sunday’s race was significant for Diggins, because it was done on his weaker, i.e. traditional skiing style.
On Tuesday, in the 20 km split start, the method of progression is free. It is the only intermediate start of the tour, where it is possible to make the most differences before next Sunday’s final stage. Before that, there will be another 15-kilometer pursuit (p), 20-kilometer skiathlon and one sprint, where Johaug will most likely be one minute more behind Diggins.
Johaug and Diggins have been on the track at the same time in the final climb of the Tour de Ski four times, in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2020. The most recent meeting in the final climb took place as a joint start, the previous ones as a chase.
In 2020, Johaug left Diggins by almost two minutes in the last three kilometers. Staying second on this year’s Tour Kerttu Niskanen was more than two minutes behind Johaug in the final climb of 2020.
In the case of Diggins, the loss in 2020 is on the smallest end, when the comparison is made with the previous encounters between him and Johaug in the final upswing. Niskanen, on the other hand, has missed Johaug by a minimum of one minute, in 2015.
Finland’s former head coach Magnar Dale estimates for Urheilu that Diggins needs at least a minute and a half advantage over Johaug in the final stage to stay ahead of him in the final results.
Former head coach of Norway Tor Arne Hetland also estimates that the decision stage is usually Johaug’s hay. However, he believed that a half-minute advantage would be enough for the top-fit Diggins to beat Johaug.
Leap in the dark
Tuesday’s 20-kilometer time trial will take place in completely exceptional terrain. First, the skiers proceed uphill for just under 11 kilometers, followed by a descent of about 9 kilometers to the finish line.
Finland’s head coach Teemu Pasanen according to the uphill section, the majority of skiers get wet and have to resort to a hoe in the steepest parts. The downhill section, on the other hand, is folded with mogren and pole skating.
The opening clip is particularly suitable for Johaug and the latter for Diggins.
Pasanen predicted that out of the two, Diggins will come out victorious from Tuesday’s draw.
If this happens, Johaug’s task in the battle for the Tour de Ski victory will become significantly more difficult. In this sense, Tuesday is the day of fate for the Norwegian star.