Trump’s verdict reminds American voters of the chaos of the presidential term, writes ‘s US correspondent Iida Tikka.
Iida TikkaYle’s US correspondent
WASHINGTON. On Thursday, a New York jury declared the former president guilty of a crime for the first time in the country’s history. The decision would have been dramatic in any situation, not to mention that the verdict was handed down in an election year for a presidential candidate.
According to the jury Donald Trump is guilty of all 34 counts of which he was accused in the so-called bribery trial. Trump can receive a maximum of four years in prison for the crimes, although the more likely punishment is a fine or probation. The punishment will be determined later, on July 11.
After the verdict, Trump spoke briefly to news cameras in the courtroom hallway, accusing the entire trial of being a shameful sham and saying he was a “very innocent man.”
“The right verdict will be given on November 5 by the citizens, and they know what happened here,” Trump said, referring to the fall presidential election.
Despite Trump’s defiant comments, it is clear that the electoral landscape just changed significantly. Here are the three most significant changes.
1. Trump’s chances of victory are narrowing
Before the verdict, Trump has been president Joe Biden the more popular candidate in several opinion polls. Specially An opinion poll published two weeks ago by The New York Times painted a picture of Trump as a clear early favorite.
However, that was before the verdict. In the past, some Republican voters and a large part of independent voters have expressed in opinion polls that if Trump were found guilty, they would not necessarily vote for him.
In the coming days and weeks, the question will likely be presented to Republican voters again. In tight elections, a change of heart of even a few thousand voters can be decisive.
A guilty verdict may make it difficult for Trump to win, especially in the US Midwest, such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota. The region’s political culture is known as quite conservative, and its voters value, for example, good manners, conscientiousness and family values.
Another increasingly difficult group of voters are suburban women who turned against Trump in 2020. A conviction for a crime related to a porn star is unlikely to encourage them to return to the Trump camp.
2. Trump’s campaign style will change significantly
Both the Trump campaign’s message and style may change in the coming weeks and months in ways that could affect the outcome of the election.
Until now, during his election campaign, Trump has been on the offensive. It has been possible because the opposite is a sitting president who is easy to blame for everything. The most significant themes of Trump’s campaign have been immigration, crime, the economy and Biden’s age.
From now on, Trump will also have to defend himself. His main task from now on is to convince the voters that he has been convicted and that the entire legal system is rotten.
Currently, many voters consider Biden incapable of carrying out his duties due to his age and apparent frailty.
Now Trump’s campaign is forced to focus on a topic that puts Trump as a person in the center. It might remind voters of what Trump’s own presidency was like and make them think about Trump’s presidential fitness.
If Trump is sentenced to prison or a suspended sentence would hinder his mobility, it would limit Trump’s ability to campaign around the country.
3. Tensions grow and the stakes get tougher
No matter how Trump’s verdict affects the voters, one thing is certain: now the stakes in the presidential election are even higher.
Trump has threatened to jail his opponents on several occasions during his campaign. After the verdict, that threat is now likely to be even more terrifying to Biden’s team.
Tensions also grow at the grassroots level. If Trump’s supporters believe that the verdict is entirely political, faith in the entire system and, for example, the outcome of the election, will again be put to the test.
Before both the 2016 election and before the 2020 election, Trump has claimed that the election will be fraudulent if he does not win. If Trump were to lose the election in the fall, these claims could incite supporters and Republican politicians into a new wave of resistance.
Trump says the real verdict won’t come until the November election. But he has already decided what that sentence should be: Trump will only accept an election victory.