Analysis: “The Trump win will require more money for defense”

In December, the Riksdag is expected to decide on a new defense decision that will outline the future of Sweden’s defense. But there is a risk that the decision is out of date even before it has been hammered through.

With Donald Trump in the White House, the need for a stronger defense increases and this may force the parties in the Riksdag to gather for renewed decisions already at the beginning of next year, with the goal of being ready for the NATO summit in June.

The deliberations can conceivably take place within the framework of the defense preparation or as negotiations directly between the parties.

Political cow trading is expected

The discussion is primarily about the fact that the investments in the defense decision may need to be brought forward, and that even more money may be required in the new situation where neither the USA nor the European power Germany, which is going through a government crisis, appears to be fully reliable.

At the same time, increased defense appropriations are expected to require political bargaining. Partly between the parties where the Center Party and the Sweden Democrats have already been out demanding increased funding. Partly between the ministries, where the Ministry of Defense usually wants to spend and where the Ministry of Finance usually wants to hold back.

What is clear is that the clock is ticking, and that the queues to buy in weapons systems are increasing when everyone now wants to equip them at the same time. For Sweden, it will be about buying what you can get your hands on, rather than choosing freely.

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