President Vladimir Putin is driving Russia to a standstill, and it will increase the possibility of a change of power in Moscow, writes ‘s foreign journalist Mika Mäkeläinen.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin seems to be at a loss right now on all fronts, at least against their own expectations.
First, on the actual front in Ukraine, Putin expected a quick victory, including Australian Major General Mick Ryan rate (switch to another service). Putin expected the spearhead of the attack to quickly penetrate the capital, Kiev.
There are notoriously many experienced professionals in the Russian forces. Still, Ukraine has received videos (switch to another service)where conscripts who have been imprisoned report their situation.
According to them, the purpose was only to practice war. One says they were forced into cannon fodder for an occupation expedition, threatening them with martial law and death. However, has not been able to verify the authenticity of the video.
Second, Putin expected the Ukrainians to break up pro-Western and pro-Russian, who would embrace the occupier and quickly change sides – as some Ukrainian troops did during the conquest of Crimea; in 2014 (moving to another service).
What else. Ukraine’s armed forces have developed enormously since then, and Ukraine has shown its unity as a people.
Russia has faced fierce resistance almost everywhere from east to west. The confidence of Ukrainians in the country’s president Volodymyr to Zelensky has risen to record levels.
Third, Putin expected the EU to challenge from sanctions and endlessly, as after the occupation of Crimea.
What else. The EU showed its unity in the face of reality and quickly managed to decide on the toughest economic sanctions ever, along with the United States and Britain.
In addition, the EU made history by agreeing on arms assistance to Ukraine.
Who would have thought a few days ago that the EU could even supply fighter jets to Ukraine?
Neither has succeeded.
Through a channel set up by the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, relatives in Russia receive information about the captured soldiers.
Fifth, Putin waited for the support of the home front ongoing, because war would not overburden the economy and sense of security of the average people of Moscow.
Whatever happened on Monday morning. The collapse of the ruble, the collapse of the stock market, the escape of the currency and the chaos of the Russian banking system are already threatening the stability of the home front.
So Russia has suffered heavily losses during the first five days on each front. It is Putin that is driving Russia to a standstill, which increases the possibility of a change of power in Moscow.
Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul is one of the experts who predictive (switch to another service)that the war will soon lead to the overthrow of Putin.
The sooner this happens, the less Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world will survive.
This is likely to be weighed in Putin’s immediate circle now. They have to choose whether they want to stay aboard a leaking ship on the wrong route in the midst of the worst storm of our century.
This analysis is the fifth in a series that News continues during the Russian invasion. We aim to publish a brief but in-depth and in-depth analysis every day at around 12 noon.
You can discuss the topic until Tuesday, March 1 at 11 p.m.