The conflict raises the price of oil, which brings money to the Russian warfare. On the other hand, Russia does not want to lose its position in the Middle East, writes foreign journalist Heikki Heiskanen.
The Russian leadership has expressed concern about the escalation of Israel and Iran’s conflict. President Vladimir Putin has offered a broker, but there are two good sides to Russia’s escalation of Israel and Iran’s conflict.
First of all, the situation takes the US attention from the attack war against Russian Ukraine. Secondly, the Middle East conflicts tend to raise the price of oil in the world market, which plays an oil producer in the Russian bag.
Tuesday of US President Donald Trump The comments aroused unrest in the market and oil prices rose by four percent. On Wednesday, the price fell again, but investors follow the situation closely.
OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia and Arab Emirates, would be able to increase their production to replace the Iranian oil export if the Israeli attacks to Iran cut off it. On the other hand would mean thatthat no additional capacity would be left for any new crisis.
If Iran decided to close the Hormuzinsalmi, which separates the Persian Gulf of India, it would probably increase the price of oil sharply.
To the US President’s concentration Two simultaneous war can be far too much.
Ukraine’s sideline was already visible on Tuesday as Trump rushed to the meeting of the G7 Group of Industrial Countries developed early.
Trump had been expected to meet Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyibut the meeting was now at the feet of the Middle East escalation. Of course, Trump had time to torpedo the Ukraine statement, which he considered too anti-Russia.
In the shadow of Israeli and Iran’s attacks, Russia also made the most devastating free of the month in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
Ukraine is also threatened by the fact that US weapon supplies to Ukraine coagulate if the United States militarily focuses on helping its ally Israel.
There is no worry about Russia. Iran is an important partner for Russia in the Middle East, so the fall of the Iranian administration would be a new setback in the Russian region.
Russia has received weapons from Iran’s war in Ukraine, above all, shahed droons. In the current situation, Iran needs everything to move the weapon himself.
However, Russia is no longer so dependent on importing Iran as it is now producing shaHed droons domestically.
Russia, which focused on the Ukrainian war, suffered a set of backstack last December when Syria fell Bašar al-Assad administration. Russia supported Assad in the Syrian Civil War.
Russia has still succeeded in keeping its base in Syria, but the new administration does not necessarily look at Russia’s presence indefinitely.
The position of Russia in Syria is weakened by the fact that the new country’s new administration has succeeded in opening connections to the West. In May Ahmed al-spara met Trump in Saudi Arabia.
There are not many ways in Russia in the current situation influence the situation in the Middle East.
The Russian and Iran alliance has been dictated by the circumstances, and Russia is not in a hurry to help Iran. Military, Russia does not want to interfere with the conflict.
The Russian leadership would be happy to play the role of a responsible broker in possible negotiations, but the proposal made by Putin for Trump does not seem to have attracted special enthusiasm in Israel.