France will have a prime minister blessed by Marine Le Pen next, or a government of civil servants, writes ‘s EU correspondent Hannele Muilu.
Hannele MuiluEU correspondent
BRUSSELS France’s frail government failed at its first test, the budget negotiations. Those in the opposition, the left and Marine Le Pen The national coalition withdrew their support from the government.
Marine Le Pen’s thumb turned down and it was off.
After last summer’s confusing election results, the president Emmanuel Macron founded a center-right and liberal minority government, which was led by a Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. Le Pen also accepted the choice.
The minority government relies on the support of the opposition, otherwise it will fall.
It is surprising that Barnier, who was adept at Brexit negotiations, was unable to secure an outcome with Le Pen. Barnier’s concessions were not enough.
Le Pen has criticized in the French media that she is not appreciated. He would have needed special attention compared to other party leaders. It is important for him to show how important he has become to French politics.
Marine le Pen’s goal is not to topple Barnier but Macron. His dream is to be the president of France.
Le Pen hopes that the political chaos emerging in France will force Macron to resign. Otherwise, the presidential election will not be until 2027.
Le Pen’s urgency is increased by the fact that she has been charged with misuse of EU funds in the payment of party salaries.
In addition to the prison sentence, the prosecutor demands a condition for the sentence, based on which Marine Le Pen could not be a candidate in the elections for five years. The verdict is expected in the spring.
Chaos and early presidential elections are also expected by the elderly Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Left-wing stammering politicians were the winners of the summer elections.
New elections can be held in the summer
Macron is unlikely to resign. His task is to find a new prime minister.
The search is for a person who could make compromises with Marine Le Pen. In France, for example, the Minister of Defense has been mentioned Sebastien Lecornu and an interior minister who approaches the National Coalition in his speaking style Bruno Retailleau.
Another option would be to resort to the three parties of the left. However, they are also at odds with each other.
Macron may also give Barnier another chance.
It is considered likely that Macron will assemble a government made up of civil servants that will last until the summer. Then it will be possible to hold the next parliamentary elections.
Macron is now reaping the harvest of the snap election he ordered in the summer. In them, the National Alliance got stronger and the president’s party got smaller.
Tight elections and other political turbulence are new in France. The last time the government fell to a motion of no confidence was in 1962.
The fragmentation of the political field now affects the background. The old ruling parties, the centre-right and the social democrats, have shrunk and Macron’s liberal party Renaissance is becoming a shooting star.
The far-right National Alliance is getting stronger, but it is also gathering opposing forces together, as happened in the elections.
Poland gets a chance
From the point of view of Europe, the leading countries France and Germany are dangerously colluding at the same time when Europe is required to be united and firm in supporting Ukraine.
When Donald Trump comes to power in January, the EU is receiving a weak duo.
Germany can be expected to get back on its feet soon after the federal election in February. The strongest candidate for the next chancellor is the centre-right CDU Friedrich Merz.
France’s future is more uncertain.
The entanglement of the EU’s leading duo can make room for a new upstart. The leadership position has been arranged at least for Poland and its prime minister To Donald Tusk.
In Brussels, Poland is still celebrating Poland’s return to the decent ranks, when power passed from the far-right anti-EU Law and Justice party to the center-right.
The center-right is now in power in no less than 14 EU countries, so the political backbone is strong.
Poland is a major supporter of Ukrainian and European defense. Tusk has good relations with Trump, the Secretary General of NATO To Mark Rutte and to the boss of the EU Commission to Ursula von der Leyen.
In addition, at the turn of the year, Poland will become the EU presidency. The six-month presidency is not necessarily of great importance these days, but Tusk can also rely on it if he wants to speak with the voice of the EU.