The moderates have gotten off to a good start in 2024. The intense debate about broken election promises that long affected support for the party has subsided. Inflation has fallen back, interest rates are on the way down and the messy NATO process has finished. In addition, gang crime is not at the center of the debate in the way it was last fall.
In addition, the Tidö parties have shown delivery in some of their most prioritized issues. At the turn of the year, the diesel price was lowered and in the legal field several promised changes have been realized.
Overall, this has contributed to more people than before thinking that the government is doing a good job. From 33 percent in October to 41 percent now, according to Indikator Opinion. Admittedly, a majority is still dissatisfied with the government’s performance, but the percentage who think the government is doing a bad job has decreased by eight percentage points.
Then the pessimism can gain new momentum
Such a development favors the largest government party, while the Liberals and Christian Democrats are firmly parked under the Riksdag barrier.
The statistically assured rise for the Moderates also follows a more positive media image for the party, according to SVT/Verian. This, in turn, can mobilize undecided voters, which is confirmed by a flow from the “couch” of half a percentage point. But is everything then just peace and joy for the Moderates?
The short answer is no. With 19.6, they are roughly on par with their election results. And SD is still the second largest party, although the distance to M has narrowed. In addition, the factors that are likely behind the rise are uncertain. Should inflation suddenly increase again and interest rate cuts be delayed further, households’ pessimism could gain new momentum.
Psychologically important for M
In the last week, the wave of violence has also escalated again and the party that usually benefits when gang crime dominates the agenda is SD.
A fragile rise, then, which needs to be confirmed in future measurements in order to establish a trend break. But the fact that it seems to lighten up is psychologically important for the Moderates, who have been pushed hard into government.
Another thing worth noting in the survey is that the Social Democrats’ downward trend continues. Since the top listing in August, the party has lost 4.2 percentage points. During the same period, confidence in Magdalena Andersson (S) has decreased by eleven percentage points.
It indicates that the previously strong tailwind was largely rooted in dissatisfaction with the government and a high level of trust in Magdalena Andersson (S). It is not long-term sustainable for the largest party in the Riksdag.
The media image of S has deteriorated significantly
Unlike the Moderates, the media image of the Social Democrats has also deteriorated significantly. For the first time since the summer of 2021, the public perceives the publicity surrounding the party as clearly negative. And it’s not so strange after the turbulence of the last few weeks surrounding the Riksdag member Jamal El Haj and the criticism Magdalena Andersson (S) received when she questioned the right-wing debater Henrik Jönsson’s funding.
The risk for S is that every small misstep forward results in big headlines, that’s how media logic works. That, if anything, should worry the largest party in the Riksdag.