What was the most important message from US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin today? It was that Austin feels confident that Turkey and Hungary will ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO before the defense alliance’s summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on July 11-12. The Minister of Defense was asked several questions about the timetable for Swedish membership, and all the answers were about the Minister’s conviction that it should take place before the important summit this summer. Words like “hope” and “confidence”, i.e. hope and security, were used by Austin while emphasizing the importance of Swedish membership for the defense alliance as a whole. Why did Austin express himself like that? Firstly: He is the Minister of Defense in the country which is the world’s leading military power. It is in the mission to express certainty and determination. By expressing a high degree of certainty about a quick Swedish membership, he can put pressure on Turkey and, by all means, the less contentious Hungary, which has not ratified Sweden’s application either. Second: Austin has information about how far Turkey has come. There has been speculation that the US would let Turkey buy more American F16 planes in exchange for a green light for Sweden. On Monday, it was reported that Turkey would be allowed to buy software for upgrading F16 planes from the United States. Austin today refrained from answering the question of whether the deal leads to a Turkish yes to Sweden’s NATO membership. Can Defense Minister Austin be completely sure today that Turkey approves Swedish membership before the summit in Vilnius? No. No matter how much pressure the US and the other NATO countries exert, it is impossible to get away from the fact that the issue is a Turkish affair. The elections in Turkey take place on May 14. If the election should give President Erdogan and his AKP party a clear victory in the presidential and parliamentary elections, it is possible that the parliament can vote for ratification of Sweden’s membership quite quickly during the early summer. But predicting election results is a tricky story. The opposition can make a strong choice. And if the result is in doubt, parliament may not even be able to convene before the summit in Vilnius. Nobody knows. Not even the defense minister of the superpower USA.
t4-general