It is always difficult to predict what lies ahead in politics. Often it is the unexpected events that take up the most space. But count on drama in the outside world to be high on the agenda in 2025 as well.
A reduced American interest in Europe’s security would, for example, mean demands for increased defense spending. And what happens to growth and inflation when Trump imposes his promised tariffs?
Uncertain, of course, but it cannot be ruled out that a troubled global situation means that the Swedes continue to hold tight to their wallets and that the recovery will take even longer. That, in turn, could put a damper on the government’s hopes for the economy as the winning issue in 2026.
The energy issue
The decisions that are supposed to be made next year can affect the economy, climate change and energy supply for decades. Nuclear power was a winning issue for the Tidö parties in 2022, but then the voters were unaware that new reactors would require subsidies in the multi-billion class and that taxpayers would have to contribute to the bill.
The ministers will have to put in an extra gear if they are to succeed in convincing the voters of the necessity. Promising cheap electricity is easy, government subsidies of billions are more difficult, especially when the criticism comes from them own ranks.
Renewal
When Magdalena Andersson (S) presented the draft of the new party programme, she described the S congress in 2025 as “one of the biggest and most important political events in Sweden”.
It sets the stage for high expectations. The ambition is to consolidate the right wing on issues related to migration and law enforcement, swing left when it comes to privatization and market solutions, and park itself in the middle in economic policy. And precisely that has caused rumblings in the party’s left, which is charging for battle against the agreement on a balance target for the state’s finances.
Not only S has launched a renewal effort: MP will hammer out a new party program, M promises a review of economic policy, C files on its “flagship reforms” and L will seek answers to the question why the party is needed.
The government question
The closer the election, the more charge there will be in the series “who takes who”. There will be alarms about ultimatums, there will be internal battles, party leaders will be questioned and answers demanded.
But those who expect a clear announcement in 2025 about which parties will form part of the respective government will be disappointed.