For a long time, Germany wandered a little half-asleep through the world. Be dependent on Russian gas? Why not? Invest in your defense? No, that is not necessary. Cyber security? It seems unnecessary. Now this must be over.
During a press conference today, with four ministers at his side, the Chancellor presented the country’s first security strategy.
– The brutal Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has taught us that freedom and peace do not just fall from the sky, said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
So many German ministers have never ever sat together during a press conference.
Zeitenwende
It was only a few days after Russia began its large-scale invasion of Ukraine that Scholz called the war a zeitenwende – one turning point – and promised that Germany would completely change its security policy.
Close to a year and a half later, the project is still not quite underway. Sure, Germany has stopped buying Russian gas and oil, something that many thought would be impossible, and the German government has sent more weapons than any other EU country to Ukraine – again a complete reversal.
But the country has still not made any major investments in its defense. Many fighter planes are still not flying and tanks are out of ammunition.
The fact that the security strategy is also several months late, and does not recommend a national security council as some had hoped, has led to some disappointment.
An uncertain multipolar world
But the security strategy is still an important, perhaps historic, document. Russia is described as the “biggest threat to peace and security” and Germany’s biggest trading partner China as a “competitor and rival.”
But what the strategy describes is not a new cold war. Instead, a picture is painted of something even more dangerous – an uncertain multipolar world where anything can happen. Cyber attacks can cause society to stop functioning and climate change is a threat to people’s health and the country’s security. There could be shortages of medicines, semiconductors, water and energy and it is unclear how countries like India and Brazil would act in the next military conflict.
In this mode, it is not enough to buy any new tanks or planes, although it is also important according to the strategy. The whole of Germany is being integrated into a new security approach.
Now the strategy is on the table. The question is whether cautious Germany will make the drastic changes needed. Or continue half asleep.