Super day. Frustration. Big disappointment. A huge disappointment.
Two, three, even four medallion seams. More than one medal is realism.
Even before the start of the European Championships in Rome, it was clear that Monday’s competition program offers the most interest to the domestic athletics crowd.
As a result, the speeches and events did not meet at all.
What happened on Monday night? Or above all: what happened before that?
Speed on the track and in the media
36 medals in 30 years.
That is the medal balance of Finnish track and field athletes, when the Olympic Games, World Cup and European Championships held since 1994 are taken into account. Eight of the 36 medals, or 22.2 percent, have come with the athlete’s own record.
In light of the statistics, the medal that came with the record is more the exception than the rule.
It’s not just a fact associated with Finns. In the 2000s, Swedish track and field athletes have achieved 59 prestigious medals, 14 of which have come with a personal record. So 23.7 percent.
However, sometimes exceptions are seen. Two years ago, Finnish moments of happiness were proven in Munich, when a pole vaulter Wilma Murtoa triple jumper Kristiina Mäkelä and a javelin thrower Lassi Etelätalo are celebrating record-breaking medals.
Of the four Finnish medalists in Munich, only the hurdler Raitanen’s top The time that brought EC gold was not decorated with the letter combination PB that describes the record.
The guarantee of Raitanen’s golden run was a quiet sharing of momentum. It made it possible for the tight-fisted Raitanen to surprise his competitors, who were on the move with clearly harder statistical times.
This year, at Rome’s Stadio Olimpico, it was a different story. At the very beginning of the EC steeplechase final on Monday, it became clear that Raitase didn’t lose in Munich. Osama Zoghlam intended to repeat his mistake of two years ago. The Italian hit the bottom of the sole, tore the group apart and ate Raitanen’s lunch right away while shaking hands.
Although Zoghlam’s drive did not last to the finish line, the other runners did not stop. The gold came off with a time of 8:14.01 and the silver in 8:14.36. 8.14.41 was also required for bronze.
Raitanen’s record was 8:16.74 four years ago. Then in June 2022, Raitanen has not gotten under 8:20. Raitanen has said that he was ill in the spring, which has made it difficult to prepare for this competition season. Before the trip to the EC, the only result of the season was recorded with 8:21.00. Because Raitanen went to the final as the 13th fastest in the statistical times.
Despite the variables mentioned above, Raitase was made a realistic medal runner in the domestic media, one of the three Finnish trump cards of the Monday titled “super day”.
At the finish, Raitanen was 15th with a time of 8:32.37. Raitanen’s record from years ago would have been enough for 5th place in the final.
Weak bases of champions
Before Raitanen’s performance, Wilma Murto had already made headlines. Like Raitanen, Murto, who was defending the EC gold, finished eighth after dropping the bar three times from a height of 458.
An Achilles injury in late February prevented full preparation for the competition season. Murto entered the EC machine with one competition under his belt, the Lahti GP, where he did not jump at full speed but exceeded 460.
When Murto cleared the EC qualification after crossing 440 and 450 in his first, the setting of a realistic medalist was ready. The final ended in eighth place with a score of 443.
The medal results would have been a basic level for Murro in his condition at the beginning of his reign, but as stated, since then things have not gone according to plan for the Finnish star.
Kosonen himself is the certainty
On Monday, perhaps the most disappointed Finnish athlete was Silja Kosonen.
The 21-year-old top promise of the sport is known as the holder of the youth ME result and one of the surest result makers in the sport. In the evening in Rome, bronze was to be won with a brisk 72-meter routine performance, but the spike throw of the French surprise derailed Kosonen from the bronze place to fourth.
However, thanks to his tough basic level, Kosonen already scored points in adult championships for the fourth time in a row (2022 MM-7th, 2022 EM-5th, 2023 MM-5th, 2024 EM-4th). The ME woman who celebrated silver in Rome and is striving to return to the absolute top of the sport Anita Wlodarczyk38, hadn’t even broken the 70-meter mark at Kosonen’s age, let alone got a taste of what it’s like to throw in adult competitions.
On Monday, Kosonen’s elimination from the medals already required a surprise.
A model from Pitkämäki
As the statistics from 1994–2023 at the beginning of the article show, the vast majority of Finns did not need their record or even their best result of the season to win a medal.
The key to realism-based success is found in a rock-solid foundation. Here is a model example Tero Pitkämäki, who in his career never threw a season’s best in the finals. He still achieved no less than seven medals in his adult career.
The champion also managed to fall outside the medals nine times.
This is worth remembering when looking at the results of, for example, Murro, who had medals in three consecutive prestigious competitions but was burdened by Achilles problems.
At the European Championships in Rome, Finland is represented by a record-breaking team. For most of the team’s athletes, a place in the finals requires a record. When the majority knowledge automatically leads to qualification, expectations – no matter how flimsy they are – naturally pile up on a thin tip.
A single top result is often used as a measure of the level of a Finnish track and field athlete, when expectations should be built through certainty of results and with special emphasis on health factors and results made just before prestigious competitions.
Both Murro and Raitase had only one result this season when they arrived in Rome, but still many qualified the old merites as guarantees of their expectations with an unreasonably high weight.
Even in the last millennium, at the top of domestic sports, thinking based on probabilities was used, in which about one out of three potential medal prospects materializes in the main event of the season as a precious metal of some color.
When the media roared about Monday being the day of several Finnish medals, emotion overrode realism.
The Finnish elite sports discussion relies heavily on optimism, which is not only a bad thing. However, that’s what it turns out to be if we talk about realism in the way we see it now.