ANALYSIS: Domestic politics ends up in the shadows

In Novus’ latest voter barometer, no statistically guaranteed changes are visible. This was also the case in the measurements for October and September.
There has thus been silence in Swedish public opinion for three months in a row. The explanation is the US election, Ukraine and Gaza.
Ulf Kristofferson, domestic political commentator, writes that domestic politics ends up in the shadow of the dramatic events in our surrounding world.

The relatively largest movements are seen for the Left Party and the Green Party. As for the Left Party, a possible explanation for the moderate rise could be a protest reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory in the United States. The Green Party’s decline could similarly be explained by the fact that the climate issue received minimal attention during the intensively monitored American election campaign.

The US election received more attention than the parliamentary election

The American presidential election received more attention in most media than elections to the Swedish Riksdag usually receive. To the extent that Swedish politicians spoke, it was often to comment on what they think of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

In addition, Russia’s war against Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas continued, with continued attacks on Gaza. Dramatic events in our surrounding world that stole the interest from Swedish political debate.

It is also notable that both the Christian Democrats and the Liberals are still below the four percent barrier in the Novus survey. Despite both parties having ministerial posts, they are unable to get on solid ground.

The problems for Busch never seem to end

Ebba Busch’s party is now 2.1 percentage points below the election result and Johan Pehrson’s party is 0.8 percentage points below the figure from September 2022. For the Liberals, the trend is upward, but for the Christian Democrats, no improvement is visible. The problems for Busch never seem to end, most recently it was the government’s decision to stop 13 wind farms in the Baltic Sea that attracted widespread criticism.

For the three largest parties S, SD and M there are very small changes. The Center Party is also at a standstill. In recent days, several media have reported on internal battles within the Center Party and that party leader Muharrem Demirok’s leadership is being questioned. Whether it will make an impression in future measurements remains to be seen.