Analysis: Bread, oil and a bitter mind – Ukraine’s war shakes millions in the Middle East

Analysis Bread oil and a bitter mind Ukraines war

In the Middle East, Western countries are accused of duplicity over the war in Ukraine. However, the suffering of the Ukrainian people is gaining understanding, writes Marika Kataja, a journalist specializing in the Middle East.

Ramadan began and Middle Eastern dining tables should groan with wheat and oily delicacies. But where to buy them if prices have risen by as much as several hundred percent a year?

According to ancient wisdom, the army is marching on its stomach, but the hungry caused by the war in Ukraine may soon be a few thousand miles away. The UN has warned that war could bring famine to the Middle East. Certainly, grain harvests can be expected in the autumn, but prices are already rising sharply.

This, in turn, can bring more unrest to an already boiling area. Who still remembers how the Arab Spring began as the people revolted against the rise in bread prices in Tunisia?

80% of Tunisian wheat has come from Ukraine. According to local media, the price of wheat is now at its highest in 14 years.

To the greatest chastity however, Lebanon, with as much as 96 percent of its wheat coming from Ukraine and Russia, may end up. Dependence on Ukrainian sunflower oil, for example, has also meant that the shelves in Beirut’s shops have already been empty.

Not that Lebanese can afford to buy anything. Even if cooking oil were found, five liters would cost the minimum monthly wage.

There are about a million Syrian refugees in Lebanon, and 90 percent of them now live in extreme poverty, according to the United Nations. Even three out of four Lebanese are already poor.

All this even before the war in Ukraine.

Lebanon is particularly fragile to food price volatility, as a massive explosion in the port of Beirut in 2020 broke its grain silos. Lebanon’s cereal stocks are currently only sufficient for 1.5 months.

In recent years, Egypt, which is also struggling with both the Arab Spring and the Korona, has been 85% dependent on wheat imported from Russia and Ukraine. Food prices are expected to skyrocket in Egypt, especially as inflation is forecast to rise from 2.3 per cent to 7.5 per cent this year.

Egypt, of course, has been in such a relationship With Russia in recent years. Russia has supplied weapons to Egypt, and Russia’s Rosatom is building a huge nuclear power plant in the north of the country. Egypt, for its part, has supported Russia’s actions in Libya – and tacitly in Syria, too Bashar al-Assadin to keep in power.

So Egypt has found itself in the blade between the West and Russia. At the UN, Egypt condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but only hours after the vote, the government posted a statement (move to another service)which expressed understanding of Russia’s security concerns and opposed economic sanctions.

He has found himself in the knife blade also Saudi Arabia. The biggest issue is oil. Russia has been the world’s third largest oil producer after the United States and Saudi Arabia 11.3 million barrels per day (switching to another service). If Europe agrees with the US decision to stop imports from Russia, more oil will be needed for the market quickly.

The question is whether they raise. For the time being, OPEC +, an organization of oil-producing countries that also includes Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, has decided to keep production at previous levels.

In general, there are cracks in relations with the West. The United Arab Emirates also abstained from voting in the UN Security Council on a resolution condemning the Russian attack. Just a week later, Syrian al-Assad visited Dubai – defying the repeated call by the United States not to invite him. Analysts have seen this as a blatant click to the United States.

Prince of Saudi Arabia, de-facto ruler Muhammad bin Salman wants to regain the position he held before being a journalist Jamal Khashoggin the murmur of a murder scandal in the eyes of Washington. Reportedly, he would be getting his will.

Although Putin visited Saudi Arabia spectacularly in the midst of a murder scandal, Saudi Arabia has not been able to count on support without reservation: Putin does not want to lose its precious relationship with Iran. Iran, on the other hand, is an enemy of Saudi Arabia.

One of the easiest ways to make it difficult The Russian economy would have to lift sanctions against Iran. The lifting of sanctions would also bring large quantities of Iranian crude oil to the market.

The strengthening of Iran’s position in the Middle East, in turn, would cause resentment with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of armed support for Yemen’s huthi rebels, among others. Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Huthe in Yemen since 2015.

The war, backed by the United States and Britain, has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world in decades and the famine of 13 million people, which will be exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. The hunger of Yemeni children has not been much reflected in Western news.

The West’s silence about the suffering of Yemenis has caused great bitterness in the Middle East and is one of the greatest examples of Western hypocrisy for those living there now that the war in Ukraine has filled the news.

In the Middle East, of course, the suffering of the Ukrainians is understood better than well. Opinions are mainly in favor of Ukraine and against Russian action. Compassion is shown to those who have lost and died in the bombing of their homes, when it is very familiar.

However, many Arabs feel deep bitterness because of the imbalance. Western countries have rushed their military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in a way that the Middle East has only dreamed of in recent decades.

– We have seen things happen in seven days that have been said to be impossible for 70 years, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki has said (you are switching to another service).

The 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States and its allies was considered an illegal occupation of the region. When Iraqis rose up against their occupiers, they were accused of being terrorists, many recall.

The war caused refugees for millions of people who were received by the West along the teeth.

More bitterness was caused by the reluctance of the United States to intervene in the Syrian civil war. Despite promises, the Syrian army did not respond to the use of chemical weapons.

Russia joined al-Assad in 2015, which was condemned in the West, but did little else. Russian bombers were allowed to hammer Aleppo civilians in the way we now see in Kharkov and Mariupol.

“Europe is now facing what we have suffered for decades. Do you now understand how it feels?” That is an issue that has been on the lips of more and more Arabs in recent weeks.

On social media and discussion boards, the West is accused of gross racism when blond-haired and blue-eyed Ukrainians are taken into open arms as opposed to Syrians and Iraqis in the past.

For example, a popular Egyptian comedy show Joe Show, (move to another service) with millions of viewers, ruthlessly mocked reports of the refugee situation in Ukraine on Western television in the early days of the war. So the reporters said, not refugees.

The compilation was excruciating to watch. “This is Europe, not some third world country,” said one of the reporters, “this was a relatively civilized, relatively European country,” another commented. “These are our Caucasian, Christian neighbors,” said the third.

Arabs feel really, really second class people. It has been revealed by following the discussion forums in the Middle East.

– Their children do not drown in the sea, one commenter on the Lebanese news site commented.

However, there is a great deal of sympathy for the Ukrainians themselves in the Arab world. The bitterness affects other Western countries, and especially their decision-makers.



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