In Chad, the population of voting age is preparing to go to the polls this Monday in a presidential election supposed to put an end to a transition which lasted three years, and after three weeks of electoral campaign which finally generated enthusiasm for a vote that many thought played in advance ”, but also tensions. But this transition will only be definitively closed with the establishment of a National Assembly, a Senate and elected local authorities, according to the new constitution. The date of these elections has not yet been set.
“ Here we are at the Faculty of Exact and Applied Sciences. We were promised scholarships, chips, catering, but we got nothing, it is horribly hot and we are in classrooms without air conditioning, we have no laboratory and we live in neighborhoods that do not have not had electricity for more than one or two months even though Chad is an oil country », exclaims Nicaise, a 25-year-old student, to the cheers of many fellow students, at the entrance to his faculty, on the road to Farcha.
Nicaise for whom “ This is just a small part of the problems we face every day “, reminds us that they are nevertheless “future executives without any hope for tomorrow, because it is unemployment that awaits us “. At Chadthousands of young graduates fall back on small jobs such as “ clando », motorbike taxi, for lack of a well-paid job. “ Things need to change on Monday for the presidential election », he exclaimed once again to the applause of around twenty students, all sweating. It’s 44°C in the shade at the start of the afternoon.
Ten candidates for the post of president
That day, Monday May 6, more than 8 million Chadians were called to the polls to to decide between 10 candidates in a presidential election which should end a three-year transition which began in April 2021 following the death of Idriss Deby Itno, officially killed in western Chad during an offensive by the Fact rebels.
After more than 30 years of power of Deby father, it is his son, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who was immediately installed in the presidential chair by the generals of the Chadian army. A presidential candidate, the young general aims to “legitimize” his power during an election considered crucial, after three years of a transition punctuated by bloody episodes which allowed him to consolidate his foundations.
“ Monday’s vote is crucial for him. If he is dubbed by the people, this will allow him to free himself from his status as a simple heir of his father. », Estimates researcher Remadji Hoïnaty. “ But nothing is a foregone conclusion, since the electoral campaign showed that the competition was more open than initially believed. “, he added. Of the nine other candidates in the running, Succès Masra, his current Prime Minister and one of his fiercest opponents until the signing of the Kinshasa agreement which allowed him to return from exile at the end of 2023, was considered by many many Chadians and specialists rather like “ a stooge and an accompanist ” In ” a completely locked ballot “.
Towards a duel Success Masra against Mahamat Idriss Déby
But his numerous campaign meetings which drew impressive crowds, his spats exchanged remotely with the transitional president, who for his part gained confidence over the days, changed the situation, in the opinion many Chadians. “ After seeing the meetings of [Succès] Masrasome of the Chadians who were disinterested in this election think that he is a serious candidate and that he can win », assures sociologist Gondeu Ladiba. “ This resulted in a definite revival for the presidential election that everyone can see in the field “.
For his part, Mahamat Idriss Déby can count on a coalition of more than 210 political parties led by the MPS, the party founded by his father and which ruled Chad for more than 30 years, as well as more than 1,000 associations of the civil society, a National Election Management Agency (Angel) and a constitutional court led by MPS leaders and an army which brought it to power, explains the same sociologist.
“ The transitional president is also betting on a victory, because the system has put in place everything necessary for him to win, the challenge being to know if there will be a second round “, he concludes, adding that for his part, Albert Pahimi Padacké, first transitional Prime Minister of Mahamat Idriss Déby “ is the 3rd man in this presidential election “. “ He is in ambush and could be the kingmaker in the event of a second round », Predicts Gondeu Ladiba, who recalls that he was 2nd with more than 10% during the last presidential election in 2021.
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NGOs point to the credibility of the election
But while tensions rise between the two main candidates, – the Transformers party denounced the burning of some of its offices, notably in Ndjamena or the arrest of some of its activists during this campaign, while the camp by Mahamat Idriss Déby pointed out remarks “ unacceptable » from Succès Masra – national and international human rights organizations said “ concerned about the human rights situation and the credibility of the vote » Thursday May 2, in a press release.
The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), the Chadian League for Human Rights (LTDH) and the Chadian Association for the Promotion of Human Rights (ATPDH) speak “ of an election that seems neither credible, nor free, nor democratic “, demand “ the deployment of international observers to ensure the smooth running of the election with a view to protecting Chad from a post-electoral crisis “.
While pointing “ the increase in human rights violations, including the violent repression of peaceful demonstrations, attacks on defenders and the reign of impunity », According to their press release.
The transition period was punctuated by several bloody episodes such as the repression of demonstrations against the transition of October 20, 2022 and which left 75 to more than 300 killed depending on sources, and more recently the death of one of the most fierce opponent of Mahamat Idriss Déby, his cousin Yaya Dilloduring the assault on his party headquarters by heavily armed security forces.
“ The big question is what will be the attitude of the Chadian army, which actually controls the main levers of power? Will she accept the result of the ballot box whatever it may be? », asks a senior Chadian executive, speaking anonymously. “ It’s been six consecutive presidential elections that power has been confiscated. A Chadian who was born under Idriss, today he is 30 years old. We are told that we are in a democracy, but everything is done so that his son replaces him and therefore, for us, it is unfeasible, it is not possible ! », Reacted Max Kemkoye, the president of the Consultation Group of Political Actors, who is campaigning for the boycott of the presidential election.
“ And it’s the army that has controlled power all this time, I don’t see them letting go “, he decided. “ Fake “, replied a senior officer, “ the Chadian army is national and republican “.
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“ The presidential election can bring danger »
“ The presidential election can be dangerous if, for example, the candidate Masra proclaims his victory on May 7, because the presidential candidate […] and his war machine will not let it happen “, warns anthropologist Saly Bakary, explaining that “ the deployment of military forces in the south of the country considered to be Masra’s stronghold are warning signs. »
“ For those in power, peace will depend on the conduct of Mr. Masra. If he continues his collaborative attitude, nothing will happen. Otherwise, the danger is real », Estimates the anthropologist.
But Succès Masra, who also says he is certain of winning first overall, believes that “ there is no reason for the Angel or anyone to publish results other than the truth of the ballot boxes “, while the opposition questions “ transparency » of the upcoming election, pointing to an electoral code which does not provide for the display of the counting reports in the polling stations or their delivery to the candidates’ representatives, and that the Angel strongly advised against taking them into account. photos under penalty of sanctions if this causes disturbances to public order.
But the Prime Minister, who says to himself “ foreseeing ”, called on his activists to be “ lookouts » by going massively to the polling stations to attend the counting and the public proclamation of the results, as provided for by law. “ This is also the best way to give confidence to everyone, and to avoid anything that could lead to suspicion of a lack of transparency. “, he pleads.
The announcement of the Angel in the photos? Brushed aside by Succès Masra: “ what is played can be filmed, can be recorded. The president of the Angel gives advice, advice, it can be followed or not followed “, he decided.
Chadians have a meeting with their destiny and many of those met in the streets of Ndjamena say they are ready to fulfill their civic duty.
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