Who will be appointed to Matignon? When? With what majority? For how long? Is a coalition possible? On the basis of what program? The list of questions that arise in the aftermath of the legislative elections and the surprise score of the New Popular Front is as long as your arm. Many French people woke up in a fog on July 8, but the clarification called for by Emmanuel Macron at the time of the announcement of the dissolution will have at least clarified one point: the “republican front” is not dead. However, in the absence of a clear majority in the Assembly and faced with the impossibility of dissolving before next summer, “the situation of ungovernability that we risk entering into may benefit the National Rally,” analyzes Arnaud Benedetti, editor-in-chief of the Revue politique et parlementaire. Author of At the gates of power – RN, the inevitable victory? (Michel Lafon), this associate professor at the University of Paris-Sorbonne “doesn’t see how we will be able to form a majority based on the results of the second round of the legislative elections” and does not believe in the entry of a Prime Minister from the NFP into Matignon: “the left bloc is in the lead but it is not in the majority”. Interview.
L’Express: Have observers underestimated the strength of the “republican front”?
Arnaud Benedetti: It is always difficult to make precise projections for legislative elections, especially in such a new political context, but it is clear that the efficiency of the “republican front” has been underestimated. Even if it has been eroding for a few years, it is undeniable that it worked, with vote transfer mechanisms that largely contained the rise of the National Rally. The withdrawal instructions were followed by the NFP electorates but also on the Ensemble side. This is what mechanically allows the left bloc to come out on top at the end of the second round. Because let’s not be mistaken, there is no social dynamic behind the 182 seats won by the NFP. What we witnessed last night was a victory for the “republican front” that had been buried.
A “Republican front” that some observers presented before the results as a “fuel” for the RN vote. How do you explain its effectiveness on Sunday?
The “Republican front” was all the more underestimated because it was thought that the ideological gaps between the Macronists, LR and the left bloc were such that they would not allow for such mechanical withdrawals as in the past, particularly given the positions of La France Insoumise. Not to mention the doubts about the ability of Macronist voters to vote for NFP candidates and in particular LFI (43% of Ensemble voters ultimately slipped an LFI ballot against the RN, 53% when the NFP candidate was not from LFI, Editor’s note:).
“On dual nationality, the RN has given fuel to a re-demonization”
On the RN side, there were strategic errors during this campaign. The party failed to professionalize itself, particularly in terms of the investiture of a certain number of candidates who were not very suitable for carrying a political label likely to win in a legislative election. And with its statements on dual nationality, the RN also gave fuel to a form of relative re-demonization of its political offer. This issue partly interfered with its campaign.
There demonization strategy Has the RN’s recent efforts ultimately failed?
No. It would have failed if we had seen a decline of the National Rally. However, in the new Assembly, the RN and its allies still have 143 deputies! This shows that the normalization strategy, if not total, has continued to operate. But it is clear that it is not complete, far from it. The question of competence is a major issue for the RN. However, it must be kept in mind that the situation of ungovernability that we risk entering into could benefit it in the months and years to come.
Ultimately, isn’t the relative failure of the RN the best possible configuration for it with a view to 2027?
This is a possible reading that also echoes another configuration, that of the 1978 legislative elections where the left lost when it was thought that it would win. Ultimately, this defeat probably allowed François Mitterrand to win the presidential election three years later. However, several mortgages weigh on this reading with regard to the RN. First, there is the question of the trial of parliamentary assistants, which is rarely discussed but which may constrain it in the circumstances. Doubts may also be expressed about the party’s ability to overcome this famous glass ceiling that continues to partially exist. They will also need to put forward a programmatic line that, on an economic level, appears more coherent than the last changes of footing made during the last campaign. And above all, they have a professionalization issue that remains major in terms of the supply of candidates. This deficiency probably cost them a certain number of seats in constituencies that were potentially winnable.
We are three years away from the next presidential election, which also gives other political parties time to rebuild themselves. But it is true that not exercising power during a period of cohabitation, which is more with a relative majority, allows the National Rally to remain in opposition, to be able to continue its professionalization and normalization and above all to prepare for the exercise of power, which did not seem to be perceived as such during these legislative elections. Finally, the idea is starting to take hold among some that this election was “stolen”. All this fuels anger, frustration and resentment, which is not likely to reduce the pressure and the RN can potentially capitalize on it with a view to 2027. It will make a negative bet, that of a deterioration of the situation due to a potential instability of the institutions which will not allow it to respond to the problems of the French in terms of purchasing power and public order.
“We cannot rule out the possibility that we will be forced to vote again in a year.”
After their surprise score, some on the NFP side are calling for not being lulled into self-satisfaction…
It is indeed necessary to put into perspective and recontextualize what happened yesterday. The RN’s failure was not coming out on top on the evening of the second round. But arithmetically, it is the leading party in the new National Assembly and has improved its number of seats compared to 2022. Not to mention that a certain number of second-round duels were decided by very few votes in several constituencies.
Emmanuel Macron has “the duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern”, reacted Jean-Luc Mélenchon following the announcement of the results. Can the head of state do otherwise than appoint a Prime Minister from the NFP?
The problem with the NFP is that it “only” has 182 deputies, which is still very far from an absolute majority. We are even in a relative majority that is not relative. In reality, since yesterday evening, there has been no majority, while the Fifth Republic is built on the fact of the majority. In the event that Macron were to appoint a Prime Minister from the NFP, I would not give much time for him to be overthrown by the National Assembly. Not to mention that within the New Popular Front, there are many divergences. No, I do not see an NFP hypothesis at Matignon. It is a question of arithmetic. 182 deputies does not make a majority. Look at the difficulties that the majority encountered in governing with 250 deputies under the previous legislature… Considering today that the NFP is in the majority seems to me to be a quick interpretation of the situation.
There is also on the table the hypothesis of a coalition which would go from the most moderate of the NFP to LR…
This is the most likely scenario for Macron, although I am not sure that it is feasible. This scenario faces three pitfalls. First, there would have to be a central low point in the Assembly to create the conditions for such a coalition. This low point may exist due to the presence of 168 Ensemble deputies, but it is very low, which would imply seeking at least a hundred deputies from other parties. Macron could seek to detach the socialists and some of the ecologists from the NFP to bring them back into a coalition, but at this stage, the former do not seem ready to take this part of the journey. He would also have to rally all or part of the historic LR channel. However, for a coalition to be built, the ideological gap between the stakeholders must not be such that it does not allow this coalition to be formed and, more importantly, to last. The conditions set by the NFP, including among the most moderate, such as the repeal of the pension reform, seem to me unlikely to be accepted by the central bloc and the LR.
We find ourselves today in an institutional situation with three blocs, which is atypical and inconceivable under the Fifth Republic. It is hard to see how we will be able to form a majority based on the results of the second round of the legislative elections. The President of the Republic’s objective of clarification, which had been put in place to legitimize this dissolution, seems to have been little achieved at this stage. After the results of the second round, something has gone wrong in the institutions of the Fifth Republic. Given the configuration of the Assembly, if we do not find the magic formula that would allow us to form a stable government, we cannot rule out the possibility that we will be forced to vote again in a year.
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