Viscerally attached to their democracy and Taiwanese identity, the 24 million inhabitants of the island designate, this Saturday, January 13, the successor to President Tsai Ing-wen, at the head of the country since 2016. The stakes are considerable. The polls give the winner by a narrow margin to her current vice-president, Lai Ching-te, representative like her of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP in English), follower of a very firm line against Beijing, ahead of Hou Yu-ih, of the Kuomintang (KMT), the nationalist party, and Ko Wen-je, of the Taiwan People’s Party, more conciliatory. For Valérie Niquet, senior researcher at the FRS (Foundation for Strategic Research), a victory for one or the other “would not change much”. But Beijing is still watching this election closely, to the point of increasing pressure a few days before the vote.
What is really at stake on January 13 in Taiwan during the presidential election?
First of all, it should be noted that Taiwan is among the most democratic countries in the world, with Tsai Ing-wen, from the so-called independence party DPP, at its head since 2016. Very charismatic, she also has a positive image in Taiwan but also on the international scene. After two consecutive terms, she cannot run again, so her vice-president Lai Ching-te will try to succeed her. If he is elected, he has chosen to appoint as vice-president, and this is important, a young Taiwanese-American woman, who was the equivalent of an ambassador for the country in the United States (Editor’s note: officially, there is no diplomatic relationship between the two States). So someone very anchored in the Anglo-Saxon world, who speaks English perfectly. Opposite, we have the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, Hou Yu-ih, who advocates closer relations with Beijing. The two men are very close in the polls.
This election will be closely followed by China and the United States because of its importance for the future of relations between the democratic island and Beijing. In your opinion, does this presidential election represent a crucial issue for Asia and the world?
I don’t think this election will be more crucial than the previous ones, although the result will certainly be closer. Quite simply because China exerts pressure during every presidential election in Taiwan, and not only at those times. Recently, Beijing has increased threats, military exercises and provocations by sending balloons to fly over the island. But the tension between the two countries is much less compared to what we saw after Nancy Pelosi’s visit, for example, in August 2022. And then, there are the declarations of Xi Jinping who assures that he there will be reunification, and that is not negotiable. In any case, these pressures are not, in my opinion, more important than in 2016 or in 2020 during the last presidential elections.
What is certain, however, is that those who oppose the independence parties of Tsai Ing-wen and her potential successor Lai Ching-te, highlight the fact that the risks of a war will be much greater important in the event of a victory for the DPP party. This is part of Chinese propaganda. China will not be able to accept it, economic relations will deteriorate even more, so there is only one solution: vote for the Kuomintang candidate. But, once again, the Taiwanese are used to this kind of propaganda speech. Not to mention all the misinformation circulating on social media. But to say that everything will be decided on January 13, war or peace, I don’t believe it. Especially since the campaign itself is rather calm and serene in Taiwan, if we put aside social networks where debates rage.
Would it be wrong to summarize this election as a duel between an anti-China candidate and a pro-China candidate?
A little. Lai Ching-te comes from the so-called independence party, of course, but this movement is in reality in favor of what we could call a status quo. In other words, they are reasonable enough not to want to officially declare Taiwan’s independence from China. Let us remember, however, that its official name is “Republic of China” – not to be confused with the People’s Republic of China which designates mainland China -, and that it has existed since 1912. They know that if they crossed this Rubicon, this would put Beijing in an extremely delicate situation. So they are, like the majority of the population, for a status quo. The Kuomintang, for its part, is positioning itself for rapprochement with Beijing, particularly in economic matters. Then, it would be, on paper at least, favorable to a resumption of what is called the “consensus of 92”, which, even if it has never been applied, affirms that mainland China and Taiwan belong to one China. The fact remains that there is still debate, even within the Kuomintang, on the meaning of the term “China”. Lai Ching-te’s party refuses in principle to recognize this agreement.
Would a Kuomintang victory lead to reunification?
No. First of all, the Taiwanese Constitution requires consultation of the population before any possible unification or change in the nature of relations with Beijing. Then, the Kuomintang was burned by what happened in Hong Kong, with this idea that Beijing would cohabit harmoniously with this entity. We have clearly seen that Beijing did not accept the students’ protest at all, and violently repressed it. Which deeply shocked the Taiwanese. In fact, only 5% of the island’s inhabitants would be in favor of what China calls reunification, but which would in fact be a real conquest of Taiwan. So, in reality, a Kuomintang victory would not change much, except perhaps joint declarations to please Beijing and affirm that there is only one China.
So there would be no fundamental change between a DPP victory and a Kuomintang victory?
In any case, a Kuomintang victory would not lead to reunification of the two sides of the strait. We are in reality more on nuances of the status quo. However, there would be changes in economic relations between the two countries. Let’s not forget that there are 300,000 Taiwanese companies present on the continent, including, for example, the giant Foxconn, and that 35% of the island’s exports are still made to the mainland. So there was no break at all at that level.
Has Beijing officially taken a stand for the Kuomintang candidate?
Yes, they are very clearly in favor of the election of the Kuomintang candidate. China puts forward the idea that if Hou Yu-ih is elected, everything will go much better. It is therefore a way of encouraging the Taiwanese population to vote for him. I emphasize an important point: the DPP like the Kuomintang have not at all given up on developing Taiwan’s military capabilities to be able to defend itself against a possible attack from Beijing, and are both in favor of maintaining close defense relations with the United States. That’s what we call strategic ambiguity.
In your opinion, is there a real risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2024?
What is certain is that Xi Jinping must be somewhat upset by what he sees in Ukraine. Because if there is an attack, it will call for a strong reaction from the Taiwanese, but also from the United States. We cannot imagine that the Americans will abandon Taiwan. This also requires an extremely complex military operation for Beijing, but it does not have the means today. It will take years before they can even consider it, they can’t launch this in just six months. Even so, an invasion would have catastrophic consequences for the Chinese regime, including very heavy economic sanctions. For all these reasons, a declaration of war on Taiwan seems difficult to envisage. So, in my opinion, the status quo still has a bright future ahead of it.
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