Never since the end of the Second World War have the French had so few children. In France, the decline in the birth rate has been almost continuous since 2011, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) published this Thursday, September 28. “Compared to the post-war peak in births, in 1971, births fell by 20.8%,” specifies INSEE. Despite a slight rebound in 2021 – a year marked by the Covid pandemic – “the decline in the birth rate is accelerating very quickly”, also notes from L’Express political scientist Jérôme Fourquet, director of the public opinion department of Ifop.
In the first half of 2023, 334,000 births were recorded in France, almost 25,000 fewer than in 2022 over the same period. Which represents a decrease of 6.8%, according to INSEE statistics, published in July. The total fertility indicator (TFR) is also falling: almost 1.80 children per woman in 2022 compared to 1.84 in 2021. As for the average age of motherhood, it continues to increase: 31 years in 2022 compared to 28.9 years in 1994.
The declining age of motherhood
But how can we explain these figures? Specialists only make hypotheses as the desire to have a child is complex to analyze. For Jérôme Fourquet, if there is no single answer to this question, several “factors and elements put together form an explosive cocktail of explanations”. Starting with the number of women of childbearing age which continues to decrease. Not only is the population aging, but also, according to INSEE, “longer studies, later partnerships and the desire to be stabilized in one’s professional life” before becoming a parent increases the age of motherhood.
At the women aged 25 to 34, births decline more than average, unlike women aged 40 or over. The number of births among the latter increased by 3.3% between 2021 and 2022. Consequence: the fertility rate is eroding because “the later we start, the more logically complicated it is to have two or three children”, adds the sounder.
Responsible inflation?
To these purely demographic factors are added economic and sociological elements. The acceleration observed in the first half of 2023 is notably linked to inflation. “We have never experienced such inflation since the 1980s and it is particularly evident in food products,” indicates Jérôme Fourquet. An increase of +20% or even +25% on certain products can therefore have a considerable impact on desire. to have a child when you are a young employee, for example. We now think twice about it.”
The number of abortions has also increased in France in 2022, reaching its highest level since 1990. A study by the Department of Research, Studies, Evaluation and Statistics (Drees) published Wednesday September 27 shows that last year, 234,300 voluntary terminations of pregnancies were recorded in France, i.e. 17,000 more than in 2020 and 7,000 more than in 2021. A significant figure if we relate it to the number of births – 723,000 – in 2022. “In addition to this, our surveys at Ifop have shown a level of optimism among the French at its lowest since 1995. Only 25% of the population is optimistic, which can also influence the will to have children or not”, analyzes Jérôme Fourquet.
Another explanation put forward: climate change seems to have become a major concern for new generations, who sometimes say they do not want children to preserve the planet. According to a 2021 survey in the scientific journal The Lancet Planetary Health, 75% of young people around the world believe that “the future is scary”, and 56% that “humanity is doomed”. The fact remains that their statements are not predictive of their desire or not to have children ten years later…
How to cure it ?
However, if this reduction in births continued and a scenario of less than 1.7 children per woman was confirmed, the age pyramid would widen further. However, if the share of seniors increases but not that of active workers, there would actually be fewer people on the labor market. Which, in the long term, could lead to repercussions in the areas of health, school or even pensions and thus be “very problematic” admits Jérôme Fourquet. If it is difficult today to imagine that France would introduce pronatalist policies as is the case for example in Hungary, “more incentive measures could be imagined”, he says.
“The beginning of the reversal of the birth rate curves in France at the beginning of the 2010s coincides with the means-testing of family allowances by François Hollande, precise the Ifop analyst. Reintroducing a system of universal social benefits, increasing them in the event of a second child or even facilitating early childhood care would perhaps be ways of boosting births…” The drop in the birth rate in France is therefore not (necessarily) irremediable.