The economic consequences are already very concrete. The dollar soared on Wednesday, November 6, while bitcoin rose to a historic record, boosted by the election of Donald Trump in the United States, the fall of the yen also helping to reinvigorate the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
The dollar soars, anticipating the American budgetary impact
Around 06:30 GMT, the greenback climbed 1.54% against the Japanese currency, to 153.95 yen per dollar and appreciated by 1.9% against the common European currency, to 0.9324 euros per dollar. dollar. Last night, the foreign exchange market reacted vigorously to the announcements of the first states won by former Republican President Donald Trump.
Economists and investors expect it to put in place new customs barriers, reduce taxes and deregulate the economy – enough to cause a widening of the public deficit, then a rise in bond rates and consequently a rise in the dollar.
After Florida, the dollar had already consolidated its gains after the announcement of a victory for the Republican candidate in the key states of Georgia and North Carolina, hotly contested and coveted by his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.
Bitcoin record
Bitcoin exceeded the $75,000 mark for the very first time, boosted by the prospect of regulatory relaxation wanted by Donald Trump. After having exceeded its last absolute peak dating back to last March ($73,797.98), the first digital currency by capitalization rose to $75,371 around 06:22 GMT, an increase of around 10%.
The former president committed during the campaign to making the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies” with an extremely relaxed regulatory framework – in contrast to the Biden government, considered to be in favor of strict regulation of the sector.
The “return to power (of Trump) would probably emphasize deregulation, tax incentives and economic policies favorable to alternative investments, such as bitcoin”, estimated before the election Nigel Green, analyst at deVere.
Tokyo soars in unison with the fall of the yen, banks celebrating
In Tokyo, the flagship Nikkei index closed up 2.61% at 39,480.67 points, and the broader Topix index ended with a jump of 1.94% to 2,715.92 points. Supported from the opening by the upward revision of the forecasts of a significant number of Japanese companies during their quarterly publications, the Tokyo market accelerated its rise until briefly gaining more than 3%.
The indices rallied against the backdrop of a sharp depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which makes the purchase of Japanese shares more attractive – and lowers the cost of imports for Japanese firms. “As Trump’s domination is widely expected, American (bond) rates and futures contracts on American stock markets have climbed”, enough to strengthen the securities of banks, tech groups and companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. defense, noted broker IwaiCosmo.
Thus, the prospect of higher bond yields in the United States caused the securities of Japanese banks to jump, which could benefit from increased income: Mizuho (+6.37%), MUFG (+5.69%) and SMFG (+ 6.92%) went up in concert. In the defense sector, the Japanese jet champion IHI soared by almost 20%.
China holds its breath
Conversely, the Chinese markets were divided and dominated by caution: around 06:30 GMT, the Shanghai composite index gained 0.44% to 3,401.85 points, that of Shenzhen 0.87% to 2,065.57 points. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, on the other hand, plunged 2.40% to 20,502.24 points.
Investors remained divided between the expected support for economic recovery plans in China, the details of which should be revealed at the end of the week, and the election of Donald Trump which darkens the horizon for the Asian giant. “For Asia, a Trump victory would be a game-changer, with a wave of aggressive customs duties (…) China, very vulnerable, could need a rapid devaluation of the yuan to absorb the shock,” had estimated Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.