Pekka Toveri, the former intelligence chief of the Defense Forces, estimates that even if Russia has air superiority over Ukraine, the attack would not be an easy operation for the country.
Former Chief of Defense Intelligence Pekka Toveri estimates that Russia’s readiness to attack Ukraine is growing all the time and may not be far off.
According to Tover, this is evidenced, among other things, by the fact that Russia has continued to group troops close to the Ukrainian border and the equipment has been disguised in winter conditions and equipped with tactical signs.
– This is usually done before the operation begins.
In addition, shooting on the ceasefire line has continued.
Russian forces surround the northern, southern and eastern parts of Ukraine. The comrade believes that Russia would be able to launch an attack quickly from the current faction and no further concentration of troops would be needed.
– The focus could be changed with the use of the Air Force and heavy fire.
However, the comrade stresses that even though Russia is increasing the pressure all the time, it is still possible not to attack.
President of the United States Joe Biden warned on Friday night Finnish time that Putin had decided to attack Ukraine in the coming days. According to Biden, the target would be Kiev, the country’s capital.
Also the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said Russia is preparing to derail Europe from its worst conflict since World War II.
Diplomatic efforts continue. The President of France Emmanuel Macron and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin discussed on the phone on Sunday.
According to France, the aim is to have a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
“You have to be pretty brazen if you believe you can take over the whole of Ukraine”
According to Pekka Tover, the kind of attack Russia would go on depends on Russia’s political goals.
The key question is whether Russia wants to put pressure on the current Ukrainian regime to conform to Russia’s political demands or to change the entire Ukrainian regime.
The quality of the attack would also depend on military judgment. Whether Russia believes it can paralyze the Ukrainian administration and its ability to lead, and what Russia assesses the combat capability of the Ukrainian armed forces and the readiness of the people to fight.
– If these are judged to be weak, it is possible to go to Kiev with quite ruthless goals, Toveri says.
If, on the other hand, Russia estimates that the Ukrainian administration will be able to continue to lead and defend itself militarily, and that the people’s will to defend is high, it will probably proceed with more cautious goals.
– We are trying to take over only the neighboring areas, for example, from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the southern coastal land, Toveri estimates.
The graphics below show how Russian troops surround Ukraine from the north, south and east:
He stresses that attacking Ukraine would by no means be an easy operation for Russia. It is a large state with a population of about 44 million.
– There are millions of Ukrainians who are ready to go into resistance, Toveri estimates.
The effort to invade Kiev, with a population of nearly three million, or to take over the whole of Ukraine, would be considered a very risky operation.
– These forces, which Russia has at its disposal, must be quite brazen if it believes that it can take over the whole of Ukraine.
It will be easier for Russia to operate in eastern Ukraine, where service connections are shorter and where there are more pro-Russian sections of the population, he adds.
Russia has significant air power over Ukraine
According to Tover, Russia’s military strength is a major air force over Ukraine.
– They have a lot more air power, and so they are likely to have air domination in the area. They also have clear superiority in far-reaching influence such as units firing Iskender-type ballistic missiles. And only in the number of artillery and rocket launchers.
He also considers Russia’s front-line combat capability strong.
If Russia launches a large-scale attack, he believes the goal is to paralyze Ukraine’s military defense capabilities.
– Then they would probably try to use the air force they have. It would seek to paralyze Ukraine’s air defense, air force, command capabilities and, subsequently, its main combat forces, as well as their maintenance and support.
Attempts would then be made to take over the areas desired.
However, a comrade points out that the wars of recent decades have shown that even if it were relatively easy for a great power to take over a country, it is not so simple to hold it.
* You can discuss the topic until Monday, February 21, 2022 at 11 p.m.