A recently discovered asteroid presents one of the highest probabilities of hitting the earth.
On December 27, 2024, astronomers from the Chilean Observatory Rio Hurtado spotted an unknown asteroid. For several weeks, different space agencies such as ESA and NASA have looked into the issue and have studied this intriguing visitor named 2024 YR4. The first conclusions of this research are relatively worrying since, according to ESA estimates, the asteroid presents 1.2% chance of hitting the earth on December 22, 2032. This case only arose ‘Once since 1999 and the implementation of the international alert system. Although impressive, this threat remains to be taken with tweezers for various reasons.
With an estimated diameter between 40 and 100 meters, the 2024 YR4 asteroid is not a juggernaut in its category but could cause serious local damage in the event of a collision. This incident would then be comparable to that of the tunguska in 1908, when an object still not formally identified at the moment had caused a blast estimated at 1,000 times the Hiroshima bomb, blowing 2,150 km² of forest in a valley central Siberia. If the consequences could be dramatic in the event of an unexpected fall on a metropolis, the risk remains low, our planet being mainly covered with oceans and uninhabited areas.
The risk assessment that represents 2024 YR4 is a real race against the clock for specialists. The asteroid is expected to move away in the coming weeks for a period of about three years. In 2028, a new observation window will open when it is visible again. Scientists must therefore obtain a maximum of data to carry out their calculations. The International Asteroid Alert Network (IAWN) met on January 28 to organize this collection of information. “This is one of the highest probabilities of a significant rock impact,” said David Rankin, Catalina Sky Survey and asteroid specialist, for the Space media on Tuesday.
Currently under close surveillance while waiting to know more, 2024 YR4 does not represent an imminent danger. Recall that there is still almost 99% chance that it does not touch the earth. Furthermore, it is likely that the estimate of the risk of collision is decreasing once the calculations have been refined. “The probability of impact of an asteroid often increases at the start before falling quickly to zero after additional observations,” reassures ESA on its website. Otherwise, the evacuation of the area concerned or a deviation from the asteroid are solutions that could be envisaged.