François Bayrou could reveal the composition of his government this Monday, December 23. Despite a clear framework with heavyweights and ministers maintained, three blocking points persist.
The essentials
- First hoped for on Sunday, the new Bayrou government should be unveiled this Monday, why not at the end of the day, so as to respect the time of silence and the national mourning planned for this Monday in tribute to the victims of Cyclone Chido in Mayotte. A minute of silence is planned at 11 a.m.
- Despite three calls and a dinner at the Elysée this Sunday, Emmanuel Macron and François Bayrou were unable to completely agree on the casting of the future executive. Things are still blocked regarding the Minister of Foreign Affairs, as well as the Economy portfolio.
- The new government should include a good number of former ministers, such as Bruno Retailleau (Interior), Sébastien Lecornu (Armies), Catherine Vautrin (Territories) Rachida Dati (Culture) or Jean-Noël Barrot (Foreign Affairs). The returns of Élisabeth Borne and Gérald Darmanin are mentioned with insistence, like that of the ex-socialist François Rebsamen, Minister of Labor under François Hollande.
- At the same time, the name of Xavier Bertrand is mentioned for Bercy, National Education or Justice. A profile which could greatly irritate the National Rally (RN). In 2010, he declared that he had “broken the jaws” of the party with a flame. The RN has made it known that it would not censor the government, even if the president of the Hauts-de-France region was in it.
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08:38 – Ministers left to stay
François Bayrou’s government should include a certain number of former ministers, with Bruno Retailleau in the lead. The latter should keep the Interior well, in the same way as Sébastien Lecornu for the Armies. Rachida Dati (Culture), Catherine Vautrin (Territories) and Jean-Noël Barrot (Foreign Affairs) also have a good chance of continuing the adventure. For Barrot, everything will depend on the fate of Gérald Darmanin who is eyeing the Quai d’Orsay. A young musical chairs could then settle between the two men, who for which position? Regal for both men? Answer this Monday, or tomorrow, Tuesday December 24. On the left, only the ex-socialist François Rebsamen, Minister of Labor under François Hollande, is currently holding the rope to enter the government.
08:32 – Wauquiez rejected for a “grand Bercy”, says no to the Ministry of Labor
According to information from Politico, Laurent Wauquiez (who will not participate in the government), demanded “a big Bercy”, including the Economy and the Budget. A request which was met with a refusal on the part of the Prime Minister, François Bayrou. He also reportedly declined a proposal granting him the Ministry of Labor. “He sees himself more handsome and taller than he is, he cannot say that he thinks that what we have offered him is not of his level,” an LR source told the media.
08:25 – Glucksmann in government? “There was contact”
“There have been contacts (…) I am in an extremely clear position, I do not believe in individual poaching, I believe in political agreements. What we need is an agreement on the substance of the policies which will be carried out (…) We will not participate in the government but we will not participate in the chaos”, indicated the Place publique MEP, Raphaël Glucksmann, this Monday in the morning of TF1.
08:21 – Wauquiez brings together LR deputies at 9 a.m.
Laurent Wauquiez will bring together the deputies of the LR group in the National Assembly, this Latin Monday at 9 a.m., announced on BFMTV Sunday evening the deputy Fabien Di Filipo. If the group’s participation in the government was now more than envisaged, despite a lack of “details on the road map”, Laurent Wauquiez will not be involved.
08:16 – The three blocking points for François Bayrou
First, François Bayrou and Emmanuel Macron cannot agree on two ministries: Foreign Affairs and the Economy. For the Quai d’Orsay, Jean-Noël Barrot seems to hold the rope and should be one of the ministers reappointed. Appreciated by François Bayrou, his knowledge of the subjects represents an asset even if Gérald Darmanin is eyeing the position. Openly a candidate, he is also expected to join the executive. If he does not obtain this ministry, François Bayrou should provide him with a way out, with another sovereign ministry, the wish of the deputy from the North.
The Ministry of the Economy also poses a problem. If Antoine Armand’s departure is beyond doubt, who will replace him? It could be entrusted to Xavier Bertrand, president of the Hauts-de-France region. An announcement that would not suit the RN. Indeed, fourteen years earlier, he indicated that he had “broken the jaws” of the party with a flame. The RN has already announced that it will not censor the government. The party would still put some pressure on François Bayrou so that Xavier Bertrand does not obtain a “too important minister”, indicates BFMTV.
08:02 – An announcement this Monday, more in the afternoon?
The announcement of the future government should take place this Monday, December 23, while Emmanuel Macron and François Bayrou have still not resolved the final details. Indeed, despite three calls and an interview this Sunday, the two men are stuck on three key points. This Monday, a minute of silence will be observed in tribute to the victims of Cyclone Chido in Mayotte, which suggests that an announcement will be made rather in the afternoon, or even “than Tuesday December 24, Christmas Eve and the beginning of the end-of-year holiday break”, indicates Le Parisien. Politico is counting on an announcement this Monday, “from the moment when the time of silence and contemplation is respected”, an Elysian advisor indicated to the media.
To go further
The appointment of a new Prime Minister will not change anything, even if a new stage is launched. The political crisis that France has been going through since this summer is not ready to end. The resignation of Michel Barnier, imposed by the censorship of the government voted by the deputies on December 4, came to remind those who had forgotten that the executive has always been very fragile. Emmanuel Macron’s choice to appoint Michel Barnier to Matignon, after a failed dissolution, gave the keys to the National Rally. Without the implicit support or laissez-faire of the RN, the next government will not last much longer. The government is facing political and arithmetic reality: its line is very much in the minority in the National Assembly, the deputies of the opposition parties are more numerous than those of the “common base” parties.
Emmanuel Macron had also prepared for the fall of Michel Barnier’s government at the end of November, based on numerous indiscretions. He had started testing the names of potential replacements even before the censorship. The choice of François Bayrou ultimately gives the signal that he remains on the same line as before: for him, it is the capacity to ensure stability which is the key, by working with the parties of the “republican arc”, without suffer the censorship of others. In doing so, Emmanuel Macron reconnects with this tacit deal with Marine Le Pen which led to the fall of the Barnier government.
A “disinterested and pluralist” Bayrou government?
François Bayrou has a precise idea of the strategy that seems to him to be the right one in this period of political crisis with a National Assembly lacking a sufficient majority to govern alone. The centrist has been pleading for months for the formation of a “disinterested, pluralist and coherent government” made up of “personalities of character”, without specifying the political sides which could or could not take part in it, as Le Figaro recalls. A vision that matches that proposed by Emmanuel Macron.
François Bayrou’s government should unsurprisingly include members of the MoDem and Macronists, but it could also open up to the right and the left on the condition that these forces agree to join the executive. Something difficult to imagine for the left: the PS and the Ecologists refused to participate in a government led by a Prime Minister foreign to the left. On the other hand, the appointment of right-wing ministers, or even the maintenance of certain resigned LR ministers such as Sébastien Lecornu or Bruno Retailleau, are mentioned. The LR party did not object to joining a Bayrou government, but refused to participate in an executive in which socialists would be appointed. During his handover speech with Michel Barnier last Friday on the steps of Matignon, the new Prime Minister did not give the slightest clue about the composition of his government. We will still have to wait. Maybe before Christmas? A schedule “difficult to keep”, according to a relative of the new tenant of Matignon, as indicated in the columns of Politico, Monday December 16, 2024.