Rumors about imminent negotiations between Russia and the United States to establish peace in Ukraine do not only worry kyiv and European chancelleries. Since the re-election of Donald Trump and his inauguration on January 20, Russian military and nationalist circles have been worried about a possible freezing of the conflict, unlike 60% of the Russian population, who would be in favor of a peace agreement after nearly three years of war, according to a Russian Field survey.
If Donald Trump’s return to the White House was greeted with caution in Russia last December, the Russian presidential administration prepared already public opinion at the end of the war by shaping the image of a victorious country, according to the newspaper close to power Kommersant.
Trump, not a “gift” but a “threat to Russia”
But the “war correspondents”, these bloggers on Telegram who have become influential Kremlin propagandists, while being critical of the Russian command’s strategy, deplore possible peace agreements.
Thus, for the widely followed military blogger Alexandre Kots, Russia must absolutely refuse any “ultimatum” that would be imposed by the United States, because according to him, President Trump would not give sufficient “security guarantees” to Moscow. “Expecting gifts from Trump after his inauguration is irrational to say the least,” adds the Rybar chainknown to be close to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
“Even before officially taking office, the new American president has already announced to the whole world his desire to annex Greenland, and at the same time Canada […] ! Everyone understands the threat this represents for Russia, alert on his side the channel “Safety Zone – Project Angel”.
“Sign peace on our terms”
“Our position is that the war must continue until total victory,” proclaims for his part the ultranationalist Roussitch channel. Because although occupying 20% of Ukrainian territory, the Russians have not taken possession of all of the four republics that Moscow declared independent, with the exception of Luhansk. “Being able to sign peace on our terms seems doubtful,” estimated the radical Igor Girkin, in reference to the objectives of demilitarization of Ukraine and capitulation of the kyiv regime for Moscow. The latter, known under the pseudonym “Strelkov”, was sentenced to serve four years in prison for his strong criticism of the Russian military command in 2023. The situation in the Kursk region, in southwest Russia, which was invaded last summer by the armed forces of kyiv, part of which has remained firmly occupied since, would not put Russia in a strong position to negotiate either.
On the front lines of the conflict, the soldiers are perfectly aware of the number of men who have perished. “Peace? Now? Wagner [NDLR : le groupe de mercenaires privés qui avait été déployé en Ukraine] would turn in his grave! It is obvious that we must conquer everything – even Odessa and Kharkiv,” said a senior Russian army officer to independent media Verstka. Other testimonies also judge that negotiations would be an insult to the thousands of Russians who died in this war, a number estimated at 90,000 according to a count by the BBC and Russian media Media zone in January 2025. This heavy human toll leads to disillusioned reflections on the state of post-war Russian society, with “benefits and payments to veterans simply ridiculous” and immense “frustrations” in society.
Fears of a deserted army
But many fear above all that a freeze in the conflict would empty the ranks of the Russian army. “If we stop the ‘special military operation’ in the current positions, then another problem will arise: the general shortage of trained personnel, already perceptible, will worsen,” reports the Rousstich channel. “By freezing the conflict, we will lose our army, and in the event of [future] war, we will not be able to survive”, explain the Roman Alekhin channel, with 200,000 subscribers.
If a ceasefire is signed, accounts close to military circles do not imagine that the agreement will be lasting, anticipating that Russia will be “deceived” first. “The Khokols [NDLR : nom insultant donné aux Ukrainiens par les Russes] do not recognize the territories [conquis par la Russie]. There will be constant provocations from them, bombings, sabotage, terrorist attacks. […] The enemy will never completely dismantle his army.” anticipates the channel “Soon home”. For this community of radicals of the “special military operation”, the negotiations do not bode well. Simply an “illusion of peace”.
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