TARTO Russia and the President Vladimir Putin they don’t stop until they have to. This is what the former commander of the US European Forces, Lt. Gen., says Ben Hodges.
interviewed Hodges last week at the Russia conference in Tartu, Estonia, where the military leadership of the NATO countries was gathered to consider how to prepare for the Russian threat.
The mood on the speaking stage was united, and in the speeches the West still stood solidly behind Ukraine. In the corridors and in one-on-one conversations, the unity of the West and the situation in Ukraine, on the other hand, were much more worrying.
Ben Hodges sees only one solution to ending the war. According to him, only the use of force or the threat of it will stop Putin.
– Nothing happens until Putin sees that he is really going to lose, says Hodges.
– Only after that, Putin starts looking for some kind of negotiation result in order to keep what he got, but also to keep his position and power.
According to Hodges, the use of force does not mean attacking Russia, of course, but that Russia is forced to comply with international agreements by its threat.
According to Hodges, it has been foolish to say out loud that Ukraine must not attack Russian soil with Western weapons.
– You don’t have to tell Putin everything. You have to know how to play by the same rules, he states.
The united front of Western countries regarding Ukraine has been torn for a long time. Germany is very cautious, while French President Emmanuel Macron has already hinted at sending troops to Ukraine. According to Hodges, Macron’s opening was strategically good.
– Even if we don’t do that, why can’t we leave that option on the table? Hodges asks.
Hodges believes that such “strategic ambiguity” and the possibility of NATO troops entering Ukraine would make Russia consider different options and threats.
Now, according to Hodges, Putin has counted on the fact that the support of the West will begin to falter and eventually the Western countries will lose their desire to continue supporting Ukraine.
And that’s what the situation looks like at the moment, when the US arms aid package for Ukraine is stuck in the country’s Congress and Europe reacts slowly to the need for help.
– So far, the Russians see that we have no will to help Ukraine win, Hodges states.
He is worried about the spread of defeatism.
– The Russians fire 10,000-20,000 rounds a day, and Ukraine cannot respond to that because it does not have enough ammunition.
Chaos after Putin should not be feared
Hodges also has theories about what happens after Putin.
– I know that some people are worried that if the Kremlin falls, chaos will result, he says.
However, according to Hodges, one should not be afraid of possible chaos in Russia, but prepare for it. He compares the situation to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
– We were all surprised. I have never met anyone who in 1988 would have predicted the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, he states.
Hodges reminds us that even then, no one lost control of nuclear weapons. This did not happen during the Cold War either.
According to Hodges, Russia would not benefit in any way from using a nuclear weapon, but would lose the trust of its powerful ally China. Russia does not want that.
– However, this time we need to prepare better for when the power in Russia changes, Hodges states.
Hodges believes that even after Putin, Russia will continue the war against the West.
– At some point, Putin will be replaced by another like him, until they are stopped.
Russia can attack the Baltics
Hodges is a realist and wants to say out loud also the option that Russia will win the war. What happens then?
– If Russia succeeds and wins Ukraine, they will do what they have said they will do, that is, continue against NATO countries, Hodges states.
According to Hodges, President Putin has made this very clear publicly. However, Hodges does not think that the target would be Finland, but most likely the Baltic countries.
– We have to prepare for the fact that Putin will make a small attack against the Baltic countries and test whether NATO will launch a joint defense.
– If he leaves, after that the NATO countries will be at war with Russia, he says.
According to Hodges, Russia is not even held back by a war against NATO, but can test how NATO reacts if it wants to.
– Europe’s air defense and ammunition production are now lagging behind, and the defense industry is taking a long time to fill ammunition stocks. Russia knows this, he says.
When Hodges looks at the situation from the perspective of the United States, he states that helping Ukraine is not charity on the part of the United States.
– This is a security threat to the United States. If Ukraine fails and Russia continues to attack a NATO country, US troops will be involved. So it’s in our interest to stay involved in Europe and make sure the war doesn’t spread.
According to Hodges, war is a test of will and a test of logistics.
– It is clear that the Ukrainian people have a stronger will than the Russians. But it is not clear whether Washington and Berlin have stronger will than the Kremlin.
Putin’s support for Biden is a bluff
The big question in the relationship between Russia and NATO is who will be the next president of the United States. Putin has said publicly that he likes the current president Joe Biden as a better option than the expected Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
According to Hodges, Putin is bluffing.
– Behind the scenes, Russia will influence in every way that Trump is elected as the next president of the United States, says Hodges.
Hodges believes that we will see significantly more Russian disinformation and propaganda in the US presidential election than in previous elections.
– We know that they have already helped Trump win once. And we know they’re trying to do it now, too, but on a much larger scale, he says.