Brazil’s presidential election in October was widely seen as a question of the fate of the Amazon rainforest. The Labor Party that promised climate action Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated the far-right Jair Bolsonaro.
About 60 percent of the Amazon rainforest is located in Brazil. During Bolsonaro’s presidency, deforestation in the Amazon accelerated enormously compared to previous years 60 percent (you switch to another service).
It is estimated that the rainforest, known as the lungs of the world, has disappeared in about half a century 17 percent (you switch to another service). Amazon’s carrying capacity is estimated to collapse no later than when a quarter of it has disappeared.
– Bolsonaro’s continued term would have been absolutely catastrophic for the planet, professor of global development studies at the University of Helsinki Markus Kröger says.
Lula’s and the Labor Party’s account also has actions that have been criticized for environmental reasons. One of these is the huge Belo Monte dam built in the Amazon region, which has, among other things, damaged the Xingu River fish stocks (you switch to another service). However, Lula’s previous administrations between 2003 and 2010 managed to reduce deforestation in the Amazon by up to 70 percent (you switch to another service).
Now Lula has promised to stop deforestation completely by 2030. At the same time, he promises to create new jobs and put Brazil back on the world map, for example in the field of climate diplomacy.
But can Lula truly stop deforestation and save the Amazon?
The president’s first actions have at least given positive signals.
On his first day in office, Lula, among other things, dismantled his predecessor’s decree that allowed small-scale gold mining on indigenous lands and established the Ministry of Indigenous Peoples.
He also returned forest management to the Ministry of Environment from the Ministry of Agriculture, under which it had been transferred during Bolsonaro’s term.
Before his inauguration, Lula had time to travel to the climate conference in Egypt, where he promised that Brazil would achieve the goals of the Paris climate agreement.
In addition, Lula appointed the Minister of the Environment By Marina Silva, who held the same position in Lula’s previous governments until 2008. Several actions that led to the shrinking of forest loss were precisely Silva’s handiwork.
However, there is still plenty of work to do.
Crime is rampant deep in the rainforest
Illegal mining and illegal logging have spread deeper and deeper into the rainforest.
The forest is being cleared illegally either to make way for agriculture and cattle farming or just speculatively due to the increase in land value, says Kröger. As a result of the complex permit forgery process, the illegally seized piece of land ends up being used for soybean or cotton plantations, for example.
– The whole thing is run by land use mafias, which include local politicians, police officers, business elites and, for example, notaries, the researcher says.
– Agricultural business runs in symbiosis with illegal logging.
Deep in the Amazon, illegal gold mining and logging have mixed with drug trafficking and other crimes, such as human trafficking.
Bolsonaro let all this run rampant. Among other things, he radically cut the budget of the authorities responsible for environmental control and indigenous affairs and made it difficult for them to operate.
– It is a very big challenge to restore control where the state currently has no authority, says Kröger.
A long-term environment minister as a trump card
The Labor Party’s Lula won the presidential race, but the Congress now has the most right-wing composition since the dictatorship era, a researcher affiliated with the Foreign Policy Institute Lauri Tähtinen says.
Tähtinen is familiar with Brazil’s environmental policy and foreign relations, among other things.
Agricultural business covers approx one-third (you switch to another service) Brazil’s GDP and voice supporters of agricultural lobbies gained a supportive position in the country’s Congress. Brazil desperately needs an improvement to the bad economic situation.
– As many people as Australia live in the Amazon region in Brazil. It is a big social question, what alternative means of livelihood are there for those who would not join illegal burning, logging or mining, says Tähtinen.
However, Lula is considered a very skilled politician and bridge builder. He is remembered for his first two presidential terms as a coalition builder and a good negotiator.
However, former and current environment minister Marina Silva brings real credibility to Lula’s government.
– Marina Silva is the most believable choice for her position. She enjoys widespread popular support and is considered an experienced creator who knows her stuff and a woman of principle, says Tähtinen.
According to Kröger, Brazil’s economic growth and increasing agricultural production would not in themselves require additional logging. There would be a lot of room for improvement in using the huge agricultural area, and for example the innovative solutions required for such puzzles can be expected from Silva.
The door is open for environmental money
Brazil has come back, Lula declared in his victory speech – in addition to his environmental promises, the president has promised to warm up Brazil’s international relations.
At the beginning of Lula’s term in office, Norway and Germany allowed the flow of money meant for forest protection again to the Amazon fund, which was frozen during Bolsonaro’s term.
According to the researchers, international cooperation plays a significant role in protecting the Amazon.
According to Kröger, for example EU decision (you switch to another service) banning products that cause deforestation is good for Amazon. Such products can be, for example, soy, palm oil and beef cattle.
According to the researchers, however, China plays a particularly important role.
– After all, most soy and beef go to China, says Kröger.
– It is important for Western countries to influence the fact that China also requires sustainable practices in its food and raw material imports, says Tähtinen.
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