Until now, Russia’s occupation of Ukraine has mostly focused on the progress on the ground. However, a significant part of the war takes place in the air, and both sides are trying to control the airspace.
Ukrainian leader Zelenskiy demanded that Western countries declare a no-fly zone over their airspace against Russian attacks since the beginning of the invasion. However, no decision was made in this direction.
Ukraine initially suffered heavy losses in its air defense systems, but many experts nevertheless found the resistance against Russia impressive.
Oryx, the open-source military analysis website that tracks military casualties since the start of the war, found that Ukraine had captured or destroyed at least 82 Russian aircraft, helicopters and drones.
There were 33 casualties in Ukraine’s air defense.
Ukrainian Air Force Officer Vasyl Kravchuk, speaking to the BBC via video without revealing his position, described the difficulties in providing defense against Russia’s air strikes and said that it is impossible to control an entire huge airspace.
Kravchuk states that the coming weeks will be tough, and that although Russia gives up on Kiev, it has its eye on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
Despite this, Kravchuk, who has been in the middle of conflict for 50 days, is smiling.
Russia is in an advantageous position in the airspace
Russia, which is in an advantageous position in its airspace, has almost three times more warplanes than Ukraine.
The US Department of Defense states that Russian planes carry out an average of 250 operations a day and make about 30 attacks.
However, Western officials state that Russia still has difficulties in gaining superiority in airspace.
Ukraine’s very old MiG-29 model warplanes have difficulty keeping up with Russia’s speed and can carry out a maximum of 10 military operations per day.
Since Ukraine knows that Russia is stronger in its airspace, it demands a no-fly zone from Western countries.
However, experts think that a possible Russian attack on the Donbas region could lead to a new and much more difficult process and wear out Ukraine’s air force.
A multi-layered defense
Justin Bronk, an Air Force Researcher at the Royal Joint Services Institute, says that due to Donbas’ proximity to Russian airspace, access will be more convenient compared to the rest of the country.
Experts say that Ukraine needs a multi-layered defense in order to prevail in the conflicts in this region, and for this it must use short, medium and long-range weapons.
Western countries have provided short-range, surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine so far.
The US sent 2,000 Stinger missiles, while Britain provided high-speed portable Starstreak anti-missile support.
Kravchuk said that Ukraine is grateful for the support of these easy-to-use shoulder-mounted air defense systems known as Manpads, but that they only saw the benefit on the front line of the war.
This is because Manpad systems are only effective against low-flying aircraft, and Russia mostly uses long-range cruise missiles.
“We’re short of medium and long-range weapons,” Kravchuk says.
‘He who controls the weather wins the war’
The war in Ukraine is currently intensifying in the east of the country. Ukraine directs its air defense to the east.
But the rest of the country also needs to be protected.
“We cannot leave half of Ukraine completely defenseless,” says Kravchuk.
On the other hand, Ukraine uses its air defense not only against Russian aircraft, but also against Russian cruise and ballistic missiles.
Kravchuk says that his unit hit the long-range missiles with 50-70 percent success.
However, this means that a large number of missiles still successfully hit their target.
The Pentagon states that Russia has fired 1,550 missiles since the beginning of the war.
On the other hand, Russia also claims to use a hypersonic missile, which is about five times faster than a normal missile and is almost impossible to stop.
It turns out that the longer the war drags on, the harder it will be for Ukraine to defend itself against Russian air strikes.
Two senior intelligence officials told the BBC that Ukraine has requested long and medium-range air defense systems from Western countries.
“Historical wars show us that whoever controls the weather ultimately wins the war,” Kravchuk says.