Agri-food under pressure from changes in consumer spending and new regulations

Agri food under pressure from changes in consumer spending and new

(Finance) – TheItalian agriculture is “stalled” and, while confirming itself among the main ones in the European Union for value of production (72.4 billion euros), it recorded a positive change only thanks to the surge in agricultural prices (+21%). This is what emerges from the Nomisma study for the Italian Farmers Confederation (CIA) “The new challenges for Italian agriculture”, where it is recalled that farmers are affected by the increase in production costs due to the war and consumers are in crisis due to the very high inflation.

The report shows that the commodity, already grown in 2021, have skyrocketed in 2022: rice (+69%), soy (+12%), wheat (+42%), corn (+39%). Inflation weighs on everything food sector (+13.1% annually) with peaks for pasta (+20%), dairy products (+17.4%) and oil (+16.2%). At the same time, all agricultural sectors are tightened by the general increase in production costs (+22%), led by the +55% of the energy item. The greatest tensions are recorded in the supply of technical inputs from abroad, above all fertilizersof which 62% are non-EU.

How does food spending change?

98% of Italians are concerned about the rise in food prices. In fact, 84% of consumers have changed food expenditurewith a stop to the superfluous for 46% and the renunciation of luxuries and higher cost goods: cut red meats (-14%), fish (-9%), cured meats (-8%) and wine (-6%) .

The retail channels also bear witness to this, with a +12% of discount. The growth of agri-food exports (+16% on 2021) is also partly linked to inflation. At the same time, the increase in imports leads to a clear worsening of the positive balance of the trade balance (from 4.9 billion in 2021 to only 300 million for 2022). “The supply chain has therefore held up in the face of difficulties, but could dangerously falter if the situation continues throughout 2023”, comments the CIA.

Fears about crop yields

The study recalls that 2023 opened with the start of the new CAP, which has as its objective the redistribution in favor of medium-small farms (only 4.5% have a surface area greater than 50 hectares) and interventions in favor of young farmers (9.3% of farmers are under 40), while the 25% of the total resources (875 million) is intended to encourage the sustainable practices necessary for the ecological transition. In parallel, the implementation of the PNRR which dedicates 8.5 billion to agri-food. All these EU funds are guided by the Farm to Fork strategy.

“However, questions remain about the effects that the new proposal could have on production Sustainable Use Regulation (SUR) – decision postponed for a few months – with which the EU asks Italy to reduce the use of plant protection products by 62% and the most dangerous ones by 45%,” it is underlined.

In lack of defensehowever, a drop of 70% is calculated for durum wheat yields, 62% for oil and as much as 81% for sauce tomatoes, 84% for rice and 87% for corn, essential to animal husbandry on which Made in Italy depends.

In the meantime, Italian agriculture has already started the pesticide reduction process (-38%), uses 45% of products allowed in organic production and can hit the target of 25% of organic surfaces by 2030, with 2.2 million hectares already converted and a waste of another 900 thousand hectares to reach final target of 3.1 million hectares.

Leading Italian farmhouses in the EU

There is also an agricultural Italy which is the leader in Europe for related activities, such as farmhouses, the first transformation, social farms and agro-energy. They are worth 5.3 billion and affect agricultural production by 10% (in the EU only 4%) and are confirmed as an important element for preserving human capital in rural areas.

They register however two speedswith the Centre-North of the country which is far ahead in the multifunctional integration phase (North-West 12%, North-East 10%, Center 9%), compared to the South (only 2%), which could boost especially agritourisms, in regions with a strong tourist vocation.

tlb-finance