The last legislative elections in October 2023 were experienced by many voters as a new breath of life after eight years of democratic chaos. The liberal coalition took the place of the ultranationalists and conservatives of the Law and Justice party, PiS. But getting Poland back on track with the rule of law seems more complicated than expected. And the twists and turns multiply.
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Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, is already ready to call early elections, just four months after his appointment. Because the leader of the new government is getting impatient and even starting to get annoyed: “ If we fail to govern because President Duda is obstructive and he wants early elections, he will have them. »The government is slipping. The Prime Minister in office since December has given himself the mission of “ clean the Augean stables left by the previous government » during his general policy speech. But he is behind schedule in the work.
For Maciej Onasz, political scientist at the University of Łódź, “ Tusk and the entire coalition are in a very complicated position“. The stables are still well guarded by the former owners, “ the PiS, after eight years of rule, has firmly integrated changes contrary to the rule of law », continues Maciek Onasz. And to go back, everything becomes complicated, in particular because of the Polish constitutional court.
Incessant blockages
While Donald Tusk is currently trying to pass the government budget, President Andrzej Duda, a great ally of the PiS, has referred the bill to the constitutional court. A judicial body under the influence of the Law and Justice party since its coming to power, according to many observers.
A situation that complicates everything according to Maciej Onasz: “ In practice, it has the possibility of blocking any changes made by legislation. » A major obstacle for the coalition in government which cannot get around it, in particular “ because there is no body in the Polish system capable of challenging the judgments of the constitutional court “, explains the political scientist.
Like the budget, all projects that aim to reverse PiS decisions are torpedoed by the President of the Republic – either by referring them to the constitutional court or by vetoing them. A veto that Parliament is unable to overturn, given its composition – it takes 3/5ths of elected officials to overturn a presidential veto.
The end justifies the means ?
So, how to do ? Hurry up, “ the coalition must satisfy voters’ demands and show that a change of power leads to a change of system », analyzes Maciej Onasz. So much so that the new government is attempting coups. Often surprising, like at the beginning of January. The police intervened in the Presidential Palace to arrest a PiS deputy, Mariusz Kamiński. The former Minister of the Interior and one of his closest collaborators are allegedly involved in a corruption affair. After a very short stint in prison, the President of the Republic pardoned them.
The government also attacked the public news channel TVP, accused of disseminating PiS ideas since its time in power. On December 20 at 7:30 p.m., no news as planned, but a message instead: “ No Polish citizen is forced to listen to propaganda […] From tomorrow, instead of propaganda soup, we want to offer pure water“. At the same time, the Minister of Culture laid off those responsible for the channel. The PiS complains that these punch operations “destroy democracy in Poland.»
For Maciej Onasz, “the coalition tries the fait accompli method“. She acts quickly, without asking too many questions. But the expert asks the question: “Is this method, in itself, consistent with the principles of a democratic rule of law? We can doubt it.»
A vague strategy
PiS continues to block everything that comes from the new majority. In parallel, “Law and Justice leaders try to impose a narrative on the end of democracy in Poland», observes the professor from the University of Łódź. In his current position, he shouts to the “violations of the law, using authoritarian or even totalitarian methods, with attempts to create“political prisoners””. The climate is deleterious and reminiscent of what the current government criticized the PiS during its second term in 2015. “An already ineffective strategy at that timecontinues Maciej Onasz.In my opinion, they still can’t recover from the October defeat.»
Playing for time before the regional and municipal elections in April is one of the goals of PiS. Polish conservatives hope to show the ruling coalition that they are still popular and that their blockages are legitimate. But there is no indication that this will be the case, according to Maciej Onasz: “They stand to lose a lot. Since 2018, they have governed half of the voivodeships [régions, NDLR]if they keep three out of the 16 in total, it will already be a success.»
Large cities should also escape them, as in every election. The October elections also marked a new trend: if the PiS is traditionally stronger in the countryside than in the big cities, there too we are witnessing an exodus of voters. So that “In the near future, PiS may have the mission to survive and limit losses“, prophesies Maciej Onasz.
The Law and Justice party could already have the next presidential election in 2025 in mind.They will be crucial. Retaining the position of President of the Republic will be extremely important for PiS.» And not only to retain the right of veto and continue to block the ruling coalition, but also for its judicial prerogatives. “If the Law and Justice party succeeds, it will be a good starting point for the 2027 legislative elections.», Maciej Onasz is already planning.
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