Uncertainties remain more than ever in the aftermath of the second round of early legislative elections that did not produce an absolute majority in the Assembly. Neither the New Popular Front (NFP, around 180 seats), nor the presidential camp (around 160 seats), nor the RN and its allies (more than 140 seats) can achieve, alone, the absolute majority set at 289 seats.
In the meantime, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is due to hand in his resignation to Emmanuel Macron this morning. However, he could keep his place, or at least be immediately reappointed in order to prevent an institutional vacuum. He said on Sunday evening that he was ready to stay at Matignon “as long as duty requires” in the context of the Olympic Games. The Elysée is playing it safe: the Head of State “will wait for the structuring of the new National Assembly to make the necessary decisions”. His position is highly anticipated, because he has the power to appoint the Prime Minister. The process could take a long time, pending a hypothetical agreement between several political forces on a candidate for Matignon and a program. Unless Emmanuel Macron opts for a technical government on the Italian model. L’Express takes stock of the different possible scenarios.
Macron appoints moderate left-wing prime minister
The left is already putting the pressure on. The NFP must present a candidacy for Matignon “within the week”, assured this Monday morning on franceinfo the leader of the socialists, Olivier Faure, while the question had not been decided during the campaign. The leader of the ecologists, Marine Tondelier, estimated on RTL that Emmanuel Macron “should call today” on the left to give him the name of Prime Minister.
Although Jean-Luc Mélenchon had declared himself “capable” of occupying the post of Prime Minister, he is nevertheless the subject of a strong rejection on the part of his left-wing partners, as well as the Macronist coalition Ensemble. The hypothesis of the nomination of a minister from the left-wing coalition seems to be more related to a more moderate representative. This would be the case of Marine Tondelier. In recent days, the political stature of the leader of the ecologists has changed. She could constitute a point of balance between LFI and the PS. Among the socialists, the name of the re-elected deputy of Landes and former advisor to François Hollande, Boris Vallaud, is also circulating.
A tandem with a man from the left and a man from the right
The scenario has already made its way to the Elysée, as the story goes The Express. Faced with a divided National Assembly, Emmanuel Macron could possibly choose balance, appointing a tandem with a political personality from the left and another from the right. A sort of national unity government that already exists in the parliamentary democracies of some of our neighbors, such as Germany or Italy.
To embody this collaboration, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Michel Barnierand the former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuvewere cited last week, perfect incarnations of these “republicans of diverse sensibilities who have known, through their courage, how to oppose the extremes”, mentioned by the head of state in his “Letter to the French“. “These are figures capable in times of coalition of bringing together people who do not necessarily agree with each other, they say at the Elysée. Figures of authority, known, moderate, capable of uniting the socialists and the Republicans.” Several voices within the presidential camp, like Yaël Braun-Pivet believed on Monday “more than ever in the coalition”. “Everyone will have to make an effort to find a government program”, she stressed on France 2.
However, the hypothesis of a transpartisan government, without the National Rally, which would go from Edouard Philippe to France Insoumise is less probable. The main representatives of the left have already ruled out any prospect of an alliance with the Macronist camp and/or the right, refusing any “alliance of opposites” or any “arrangement”.
The idea of a technical government
The concept never existed in France, under the Fifth Republic, unlike some of our neighbors, including Italy. The scenario of a so-called “technical” government, which would be composed of non-politicized experts (economists, senior civil servants, diplomats, etc.) is gaining ground. “In this case, we appoint a general to the army, a law professor to Justice, a major bank director to Economy and Finance, and so on,” summarized constitutionalist Dominique Chagnollaud de Sabouret on LCI on June 18.
In this sense, some of the president’s close associates have recently been able to question the relevance of the appointment of the governor of the Bank of France. François Villeroy de Galhau at Bercy, or that of the former prosecutor François Molins at the Interior Ministry. And why not the former ambassador Gérard Araud at Foreign Affairs? To lead such a government, the name of Laurent Berger has already been mentioned. The former secretary general of the CFDT had been put forward by Raphaël Glucksmann as a potential Prime Minister. “That is not my desire. I have chosen to withdraw from public life,” Laurent Berger had replied on June 24.
A broadened center behind Macron
Can the president assemble a majority from the centre, drawing from the left and right wings of the National Assembly? This would amount to trying to form a government between the PS, Place Publique, the environmentalists and the allies of the presidential party, namely the MoDem and Horizon (the party of former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe). A few days ago, the former president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, argued for a “new republican coalition” (de facto excluding the National Rally and France Insoumise).
“In the event of an RN-LFI majority, a Prime Minister could well rely on a coalition that sweeps political forces from the centre left to the centre right,” Benjamin Morel, constitutionalist and political scientist, explained to L’Express. But his government would risk falling at the first motion of censure. This head of government would therefore be in some way a prisoner of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen.”