Two roommates with stormy relationships, forced to live under the same roof for four years. We do not reveal here the scenario of the last film by Christian Clavier, but the political impasse in the National Assembly. The implicit partnership between the relative presidential majority and Les Républicains (LR) did not withstand scrutiny of the pension reform. The use of 49.3, consequences of defections to the right, questions the future of this team and the government’s ability to launch structural reforms.
Mandated by Emmanuel Macron to “enlarge the majority”, Elisabeth Borne received her favorite trio on Wednesday at Matignon: the president of LR Éric Ciotti, the boss of the LR deputies Olivier Marleix and his counterpart in the Senate Bruno Retailleau. Unnecessary maintenance, in general opinion. “Not much came out of it,” said one participant. How could it be otherwise? The Prime Minister, whose future hangs by a thread, comes out washed out of the sequence. The LR feathered hats, in favor of pension reform, suffered the revolt of a small half of the deputies on the right.
“There is one that does not help you, it’s Bergé”
Trust between the two camps is damaged. The majority fulminates against this disloyal partner, the source of so many evils. To hell with ideological coherence! The right’s only compass would be its meager electoral interests. The 19 LR votes brought to the motion of censure reinforce the divide. “We can only work in confidence with coherent people, assures the president of the Renaissance group Aurore Bergé. What degree of confidence can we have in those who voted censorship against what they have always advocated?” The repeated charges of the deputy of Yvelines annoy within LR, including in its “constructive” fringe. A pro-reform MP was moved by the Minister of Public Accounts Gabriel Attal. “There’s one that doesn’t help you, it’s Bergé!”
But we have to live well together. The Nupes and the RN claim frontal opposition to Emmanuel Macron. The ideological proximity between LR and Renaissance remains obvious, as demonstrated by the compromises established by the two groups since June. “We are rival partners”, theorized this fall a young LR deputy. The management of LR then boasted of a “responsible” opposition, ready to vote for useful texts or scrap against the bad ones.
This praise of common sense showed its limits during the episode of pensions. Concern for intellectual coherence and strategic positioning collided. Politics has regained its rights, to the detriment of a clinical analysis of the text. A similar scenario was taking shape around the immigration law, postponed indefinitely by the Head of State. LR was preparing to cut the text to pieces – despite its repressive provisions – in order to recall its status as an opponent.
A work “almost deputy by deputy”
“Rival partners”: the association is valid for consensual or minor texts, but the rivalry invites itself with the spotlights. “Collaboration is possible on less divisive or more protective texts, as was the purchasing power text this summer”, notes the Renaissance deputy from Val-de-Marne Mathieu Lefèvre. Bills on nuclear power or the Olympic Games thus received the support of LR at the end of March. The executive integrates this new situation. The quest for “text by text” majorities – Elisabeth Borne’s method – is accompanied by a strategic shift. “Fewer legal texts, shorter, clearer texts”, announced Emmanuel Macron on March 22, paving the way for increased use of regulations.
At Renaissance, we promise to work “almost deputy by deputy”. “The opposition must be involved in co-construction work from the start, notes Aurore Bergé. We must know as soon as the text is tabled in the Council of Ministers that it has a majority.” The Minister for Relations with Parliament Franck Riester thus recently spoke with several LR deputies, as did Gabriel Attal. “There are indeed 15 or 20 LR deputies with whom we can work constructively”, wants to believe the deputy Renaissance Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade.
The idea of cutting out the most divisive texts, such as on immigration, won over the executive. One law for the left, another for the right? LR does not want to hear. Senate President Gérard Larcher warned Elisabeth Borne. “We don’t slice up laws that structure a theme,” says those around him. Same warning from a young deputy to a minister. “You have to choose with whom you do the texts.”
“We’re not going to get on the Titanic”
This table does not outline great ambitions. More than an Assembly transformed into a cauldron, the right anticipates a withering of parliamentary life. Forgotten the “transformations” promised in 2017 by the author of “Revolution”! Make way for private bills (PPL). “Macron’s desire for reform is not dead? We risk falling into a form of immobility”, judges the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes Éric Pauget. A fear shared in private by Bruno Retailleau. In addition to this democratic anemia, the right risks taking the light only according to its divisions. “This responsible opposition strategy has failed, slips an LR leader. There is a general disorientation to find the right formula, against the backdrop of an offensive by supporters of a coalition.”
The little music of an agreement with the executive resonates again on the right. Admittedly, the staff of LR condemns it. “We are not going to get on the Titanic”, sums up Olivier Marleix. But several deputies confess an intellectual journey. These elected officials deliver an identical analysis: the assembly is paralyzed, the right lacks incarnation and could find oxygen by exercising power on the basis of a renewed presidential project. The deputy of Hauts-de-Seine Philippe Juvin thus circulated internally a forum calling for the appointment of a Prime Minister from the right to get out of the crisis.
No offer from Macron
“Responsible opposition or reconstituted majority? I wonder, and this was not the case a year ago”, admits an elected official. “We must not lose hope of seeing LRs participate in a government, wants to believe a minister. But it must be in a spirit of cohabitation, not of coalition. They must be given the possibility of involving them without their voters feel like they are compromising themselves.” Such a recomposition is for the time being illusory. It would fall under the exclusive initiative of Emmanuel Macron, who swept away the hypothesis on March 21. Olivier Marleix privately doubts that the Head of State is going down this path, which is incompatible with his personality. “Can you imagine Macron giving what remains of his power to an LR Prime Minister? I don’t believe it for a second. He is not going to tie his hands.”
The “presidential” offer is long overdue, the “demand” would be demanding. LR deputies were elected in opposition to Emmanuel Macron, many do not want to hear about a rapprochement. Time is no ally, as the erosion of the power of the Head of State dulls the sirens of power. Olivier Marleix warned Nicolas Sarkozy during a recent interview: “At Matignon, you would not take more than ten deputies.” Individual poaching, Emmanuel Macron’s trademark, would only strain relations between the right and the executive. It would take much more to rally a majority of LR deputies. This offer is not on the table today. In the absence of Pacs, the roommates of the Palais Bourbon are condemned to room apart.