In South Africa, the official results were announced in the evening of Sunday June 2. The African National Congress, in power since 1994, lost its absolute majority for the first time. The ANC will therefore have to find one or more partner parties to form a coalition in the National Assembly and elect its candidate: outgoing President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is seeking a second term.
This Sunday, June 2, in Midrand in South Africa, the official results of the general elections were proclaimed at the National Center for Electoral Results, in the presence of all political parties, members of the government, and the diplomatic corps. Even members of Jacob Zuma’s MK party, which contests these results and had announced to boycott the event earlier in the day, were present in the assembly, describes our correspondent on site, Roman Song.
“ The 2024 elections were free and fairdeclared the director of the electoral commission. Our democracy has spoken. » During his speech, outgoing President Cyril Ramaphosa welcomed the elections “ free, fair, credible and peaceful “. “ Our people have spoken, whether we like it or not “, joked the head of state, who is also the president of the ANC. “ We must respect his choices. »
In order, it is therefore the African National Congress (ANC) which remains the leading political party with 40% of the votes – or 159 seats out of 400, a severe slap compared to the 230 parliamentarians that he counted in the outgoing Parliament. It is then followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA), the first opposition party and liberal party, with 22% of the votes (87 deputies), then Jacob Zuma’s MK – the uMkhonto weSizwe party – which received 15% of the votes (49 parliamentarians), a staggering score for a party founded only a few months ago. Julius Malema’s EFF, a radical left party, obtained 9% of the vote.
Fourteen days to form a coalition
From now on, the political parties have fourteen days to agree and form a coalition. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has also called on all political forces to “ work together », after the announcement of the official results. “ ANC commits to forming government […] stable and able to govern effectively “, declared its secretary general Fikile Mbalula, specifying that the party would hold discussions internally and with other parties ” the coming days “.
Parliament must indeed open a new session within two weeks and elect the head of state. But two weeks to form a coalition is a very short time for a country new to coalition governments on a national scale.
South Africa received help from European countries such as Germany and Denmark to effectively enter this new era. Talks between parties are due to intensify from this Monday. There is no time to lose: South Africans want to know who will govern them.
What possible scenarios?
After this political earthquakethe ANC must now forge alliances and find allies among the three heads of the opposition. The party could form a coalition on its right, with the DA, which would reassure the business world in particular, or on its radical left, with Zuma’s MK or Julius Malema’s EFF, two former figures of the ANC having seceded. However, MK has made it known that it will not discuss with the ANC as long as Cyril Ramaphosa remains at its head.
“ There are two scenarios: the ANC with the Democratic Alliance. There is a faction within the ANC that favors an alliance with this more right-wing liberal party. Or, second scenario: the ANC with the EFF and MK, but these two parties are not comfortable with Cyril Ramaphosa. Jacob Zuma at the head of MK is technically still a member of the ANC, and has also said that the ANC under Ramaphosa is not the real ANC, and that Zuma had to form his own movement with political orientations what did Ramaphosa give to this party », analyzes researcher Harlan Cloete, from the University of the Free State at the microphone ofAlexandra Brangeon.
“ The other question is: what will happen to the president Cyril Ramaphosa ? Because there is a faction within the ANC that accuses him of bringing about the fall of the ruling party. And today he is no longer of much use, so some say: maybe we need to replace him and find someone else », adds the specialist.
DA and EFF consider conditions for coalition
Some parties are already thinking on the merits of a coalition with the ANC. This is the case of the DA, which announced this Sunday “ exploratory discussions » with other parties, for “ identify options » in order to avoid a coalition at all costs « chaos » between the ANC and two parties on its radical left.
More directly, Julius Malema’s radical left party Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has already publicly expressed its desire to work with the ANC during a press conference. This alliance becomes very likely, according to political scientist Ongama Mtimka of Nelson Mandela Bay University.
“ I think Julius Malema has achieved a masterstroke by taking the first step, like an opening in chess, in the sense that he is opening a path that distances himself from the MK party. He also says he doesn’t care who the president would be. Cyril Ramaphosa is the president of the ANC? He says: it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t concern us. Then he told his voters: we don’t need to agree on everything before the fourteen-day deadline to form a coalition », Explains the researcher.
There is a lot of talk about this possible association as a “coalition of chaos”, but I don’t think it could be one. First, because the ANC, internally, has already been a coalition party since 1996 and it has managed to manage the ideological differences that run through it. We also hear about negotiations with the Democratic Alliance. It is possible, even if this direction would cause instability within the ANC and lead to the same consequences as a so-called “coalition of chaos”.
Ongama Mtimka, political scientist at Nelson Mandela Bay University
The economic orientations of the country differ depending on the coalition chosen
With growth of 0.6% in 2023 and an unemployment rate of nearly 33%, the economic question will also be central in the coming weeks for the country’s new leaders. The future new coalition will therefore necessarily have a real impact on economic orientations future.
First hypothesis: the ANC could come to terms with the DA, a liberal economic party. Concretely, this would then push decisions towards the right wing of the chessboard, with a less generous social policy and greater liberalization of the labor market. The DA also promotes a rather pro-Western vision internationally.
Second hypothesis: the ANC would join forces with MK and the Economic Freedom Fighters party. She would then commit to a more social policy. In a campaign rally in the country’s largest township in Soweto, Jacob Zuma promised, for example free school for the poorest children and job creation.
Such an alliance would also lead to financial support for failing South African state-owned enterprises, or even more: both parties have declared themselves in favor of the nationalization of mines and land, “ which would complicate economic relations with investors and the United States », Underlines Pauline Bax of the International Crisis Group, knowing that Jacob Zuma, former head of state, is resolutely more focused on Moscow.
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