On June 29, the Riksbank raised the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 percent. It is the highest level in almost 15 years. SVT has asked the five major banks SEB, Nordea, Handelsbanken, Swedbank and Danske bank about their forecasts for the policy rate.
The banks are now expecting at least one more increase and that the policy rate will peak this autumn at between 4.00 and 4.25 percent. Previously, most banks expected the interest rate to peak at 3.75 percent.
– Inflation is still very high and in addition the krona is weak and this is something that makes the inflationary pressure even higher through the fact that we import goods. This makes us believe that the Riksbank will continue to raise the interest rate both in September and in November, says Christina Nyman, Chief Economist at Handelsbanken.
“Great uncertainty about inflation”
The banks also expect that the higher level will be more persistent than previously thought and that the reductions will begin somewhat cautiously in April 2024 at the earliest. Towards the end of 2024, the major banks expect the Riksbank to lower the interest rate to between 3.00 and 3.75 percent. Previously, the banks expected the policy rate to fall to a minimum of 2.00 percent by the end of 2024.
– There is still great uncertainty about inflation. It is very high and must come down quite a bit before we get down to the inflation target, says Christina Nyman at Handelsbanken.
“Perceptible to households”
Those with mortgages can therefore count on mortgage interest rates to continue to rise in the future. According to Christina Nyman, an increase of half a percentage point means an increased cost of SEK 7,200 annually for a loan of SEK 2 million with variable interest, calculated after interest deduction
– It is clear that it will be very noticeable for many households with large loans, she says.